Jeremiyah Love landing on injured reserve yesterday captures three major fantasy football themes. The first is the instability of backfields compared to other positions. We all know this inherently, and the data backs it up. Since 2012, the preseason RB12s have averaged more points than the the RB2s. The RB18s have averaged only 3.6 points less than the RB5s. The RB41s have averaged more than the RB21s.
We know what *could* happen to weekly fantasy starters, because anything can happen. But that doesn't mean we're *prepared* for what could happen. Love's lofty preseason RB15 ADP suggested he could be a weekly starter. He wasn't. He might not be if/when he returns later this season. Whether due to injuries or poor execution or both, perceived greatness doesn't always translate on the field.
A second major theme concerns the complexities of teams' backfields; it's not just about the starter, but also who managers can rely on as the handcuff. When the season started, the Cardinals had four running backs with (presumably) starter capabilities. James Conner and Trey Benson couldn't be counted on, but the fantasy market recognized that they (particularly Conner) could still hold later-season value in case of an emergency. Arizona landed Tyler Allgeier in the offseason, and he thought he'd be the starter.
Then they drafted Love #3 overall. All four guys started the year with top-100 RB ADPs: Love (RB15) presumably would ease into a workhorse role, eventually delivering better than ADP value. Allgeier (RB46) would be a solid short-term handcuff and early-season streamer. Conner (RB76) and Benson (RB85) could be ignored, though not necessarily forgotten. For context, Emanuel Wilson's ADP was RB80, and Kendre Miller's was RB82.
Where was Bam Knight? He was at RB106, right behind Zeke Elliott. Yeah, that Zeke Elliott. Then in Weeks 6 and 7, Knight played like the Cards' best running back. Entering Week 8, it wouldn't have been farfetched to think Knight would be safer than Allgeier. That's how far Knight had jumped, and how far Allgeier had plummeted.
Then against the Cowboys this past weekend, Allgeier had 12 total yards with a little over a minute remaining in the third quarter. Love and Knight had been knocked out. Allgeier then racked up another 179 yards. And just like that, he's a must-start RB.
Every season, a team's #3 or #4 (or sometimes #5) RB enjoys fantasy relevance. The challenge is that fortunes can shift on one play. Love-to-Allgeier-to-Knight-to-Allgeier is the fantasy flow so far. And we have no clue if/when Allgeier will be replaced by someone else.
The third major theme is how the fantasy market (definitely me included) almost always expects great things from first-round NFL running backs. 12 RBs have been drafted in the first round since 2018. Four of them have enjoyed / are still enjoying stellar careers: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The other four are Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jeanty, Love, and Jadarian Price. I was very vocal this summer about Price being overvalued. But I was sold on Hampton, Jeanty, and Love. ("If their teams invested that much draft capital, then I've gotta believe they'll be fine.") Except it doesn't always work that way. Hampton has been a disaster. Jeanty is no longer assured a workhorse role. Love and Price have battle injuries.
I discussed this last theme in a podcast episode last week, warning that Jeanty easily could lose his starting job to Mike Washington Jr., because the Raiders don't owe their former first rounder anything except a salary. Jeanty has to earn it, and in his first one-and-a-half seasons, he hasn't.
The longer first rounders play, the less their first-round pedigree matters. 33% of the first rounders taken since 2018 have been fantastic. 33% have mildly-to-significantly disappointed. And 33% are off to somewhat rocky starts (though Jeanty at least is producing for managers, at least for now).
Love is at the intersection of these three fantasy themes that hit us year after year, whether we're prepared for it or not.
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