Last year, 40.5% of Josh Allen's total fantasy production occurred in the fourth quarter. It doesn't always work out that way -- especially the year before, when Buffalo won by 21+ points seven times, making late-game heroics frequently unnecessary. But it's fair to say that the most consistently dominant fantasy QB of this era is uniquely capable of racking up buckets of points when the game's on the line.
Yesterday he had 20 points in the final frame and overtime, turning an ugly performance into a must-start performance. He did it without his #1 receiver, and against a defense that hadn't given up more than 50 receiving yards to any player all season.
Allen's 121 rushing yards topped his total from weeks 1 to 4 (118). It also marked only his second career 110+ rushing-yard outing; the first was when he was a 22-year-old rookie. Now he's 30. He's been the QB1 or QB2 in each of the past six seasons. He's currently the QB1, averaging 28.6 fantasy points per game. Brock Purdy is next-closest at 23.3. Incredible.
Of course, 38-year-old Matthew Stafford isn't too shabby, especially when Puca Nacua and Davante Adams are both on the field. He entered last night as the QB22 in points per game. But managers eyeing his upcoming schedule (including yesterday) knew that he's facing more soft pass defenses between now and mid-November than possibly any other quarterback. The time to buy low was Saturday. This is the topic of today's podcast.
Elsewhere, James Cook coughed it up twice yesterday, losing the ball once, It didn't cost them the game and shouldn't overshadow how incredible he's been. But he's now had five turnovers in his last 14 games. That's an unpleasant stat. Buffalo presumably can overlook it, and if they can't, then we might see a few more touches for Ray Davis or Ty Johnson. That might actually be a good thing for Cook, who's on pace for 323 carries. He had a career-high 348 last year (including the playoffs).
One other thing about Cook: his usage through the air has plummeted. He had 73.1 fantasy points through the air last year, accounting for 24.2% of his total points. He currently has only seven catches for 31 scoreless yards -- 10.1 fantasy points, or 11.3% of his total points. That means he has to do that much more on the ground to compensate.
Meanwhile, in his last three games, Ty Johnson has caught all 10 of his targets for 131 yards. He'll probably be a trendy waiver add for RB-needy managers. Last year he had a 24-263-2 receiving line. There are worse dart throws.
Should we worry about Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid? Probably not. I view Kincaid as a solid buy-low TE if you can get him for less than around QB7 value (very doable given his three-game slump). Coleman now has three games with one catch and two games with six catches. When DJ Moore returns, the 23-year-old receiver will be "one of many options," which carries obvious risks and rewards in a high-powered offense.
For the Rams, no surprises for Nacua and Adams, except I think Nacua had the third-most targets (24) in NFL history. (The record is 28 by Brandon Marshall versus the 12-0 Colts in 2009, because if you're facing an undefeated team in December, give 'em your best.)
Blake Corum made the most of his eight touches. This also marks his third straight game with eight or fewer touches, during which he's averaged only 3.0 yards per carry. So be a little cautious about over-committing to this relatively low-volume 1B running back.
Finally, imagine three weeks ago telling someone that Kincaid would collect less than 10 fantasy points across his next three contests . . . while 33-year-old Tyler Higbee would net 46.2. Higbee has effectively traded places with the injured Terrance Ferguson. In such a top-heavy passing attack, where the only non-Nacua/Adams wideout to see a target was Tutu Atwell (and he had only one look), Higbee should be streamable for at least two more games while Ferguson's on IR.
---