When was the last time a winless, road, 7+ point underdog won on Thursday Night Football? If I'd asked ChatGPT that question 24 hours ago, it would have responded with something like "That's impossible. Now what's for dinner?"
For the Bucs, their undrafted rookie QB in his second NFL start outplayed a longtime franchise quarterback. Their underperforming starting running back couldn't be stopped, averaging 7.9 yards on 21 carries. Their pseudo-#1 WR had a season-high six catches and found the end zone.
It would be easy to draw sweeping conclusions -- including rest-of-season projections -- based what happened. We should also keep in mind that Dallas probably will be the worst defense they'll face all year. Entering this game, the Cowboys were giving up the league's highest passer rating (122.7) and the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.4), while also tallying the second-fewest sacks (four).
Jalon Daniels' 64-yard connection Tez Johnson on 2nd and 14 said it all. The pass was a little behind Johnson, but it didn't matter, because there were no defenders nearby. Three plays and 7.5 Bucky Irving points later, they pushed the lead to 11. That completion was one-third of Daniels' passing yardage, and it changed the whole game.
In the end, the Bucs had two fantasy-startable players. I think managers in 10-team leagues should feel fairly safe dropping Chris Godwin. For Kenny Gainwell, last season's 73-486 receiving line seems far away. He's now on pace for 37-184. That's worse than MarShawn Lloyd and Raheim Sanders. And while Daniels has exceeded expectations -- and while this victory goes a long way toward legitimizing him as an NFL-ready quarterback -- it's too soon to call him fantasy-friendly. He's a work in progress on a team with tougher matchups ahead.
But . . . deep leaguers or Superflexers stashing Baker Mayfield on IR can't be thrilled about all this. Sure, he has one of the league's highest annual salaries, and his contract runs through the 2028 season. And yet, he might not return until November. Daniels has a little more time to make things a little less comfortable for those expecting Mayfield to be untouchable under center.
For Dallas, the only story that really matters is CeeDee Lamb's quad injury, which pushed him to the sidelines during the Cowboys' frantic fourth-quarter comeback attempt. Maybe he wasn't quite right before exiting, as he caught only two passes for nine yards on five targets. Although we could expect a pullback after last year's insane usage, this was different. It wasn't just "George Pickens' turn." Lamb was irrelevant.
This past weekend, Tampa Bay held Christian Watson to three catches for 47 yards on three targets. In Week 1, Ja'Marr Chase managed only two catches for 12 yards on four targets. Though in fairness, Justin Jefferson was on track for a solid game before getting hurt early when he faced Tampa Bay.
So in three of five games, this defense has held Lamb, Chase, and Watson to a combined 7-68-0 receiving line. That's roughly five fantasy points per game, on average, for four must-start receivers with elite ceilings. We can't ignore that. They'll face DK Metcalf next.
Finally, Pickens: he was on pace for a 77-956-0 receiving line. Some of you commented or messaged me directly, asking whether I thought it was safe to start him. My response essentially was, there's nothing reportedly physically wrong with him, and he's still getting looks, and these things tend to balance out. Now he's on pace for 92-1,207-3.
At 77-956-0, he's seemingly risky. At 92-1,207-3, he's a no-brainer. That's how quickly things can turn.
And scrolling through the final-score predictions, I can't find anyone who predicted a Bucs victory. So for the first time since this contest started a few years ago, nobody wins. Let that be a lesson for all of us: always bet on winless, road, 7+ point underdogs.
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