A couple of thoughts today -- the first one, very brief. A few of you have asked my thoughts about Will Shipley, one of this week's most popular waiver adds. So I did a podcast episode today explaining why he's likely to flop. Every day I add the newest episode's title and the podcast link at the bottom of the post. Check it out if you're tempted to pick him up.
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During this first month of the season, I've talked a little about some unusual RB stats that buck recent years' trends. There's another one that jumped out at me last night because it's so unusual, and (of course) because it has fantasy implications.
Each year since 1988, at least one RB has collected 350+ touches. (The partial strike season of 1987 helps explain why it didn't happen that year.) Now that we have 17-game seasons, the odds are pretty good that this 36-season streak will continue for the foreseeable future.
As for 400+ touch seasons, no one hit that mark in 2022. The high in 2017 was 381, and in 2015 it was 382. Then you'd have to go all the way back to 1989 to find the last time the NFL didn't produce a 400+ touch running back. So this has happened only three times since 1990.
The last time three RBs hit 400+ in the same season was in 2012. The last time four achieved it was in 2005. The only time in NFL history that more than four had 400+ was in 2003, when six cleared it. But only four achieved it during the regular season; the other two needed the playoffs to crack 400.
Thru Week 4 this year, six running backs are on pace for 400+ touches during the regular season: Jahmyr Gibbs (434-touch pace), Kenneth Walker (421), Bijan Robinson (421), Ashton Jeanty (412), Derrick Henry (408), and Jonathan Taylor (408). While all six are reasonably healthy, Henry is now 32. Taylor had an extensive injury history before last season. Walker's on track to break his previous high (last year) by about 100 touches.
So we can't ignore the risks. But these projections don't fully capture how unusual this volume is. Because these six players are on teams with a combined 16-8 record. All are 2-2 or better. All have modest-to-reasonable-to-great odds of making the playoffs. At least half of these six RBs realistically could play 18+ games, putting them on track for 430+, 450+, or even 470+ touches.
Only 42 times has an RB had 400+ touches during the regular season. Six are currently on pace. Only 28 times has an RB had 450+ during the regular season + playoffs. If all six of these RBs stay healthy, and if at least three reach the postseason, then at least three could crack 450 touches for the first time since 1998 and for only the third time in history.
One of the oddest parts to this is that no other RB is on pace for 350+ regular-season touches. 31-year-old Aaron Jones leads the pack with a 344-touch pace. It's sort of a "have's / have-not's" situation. If you drafted any of those "big six" running backs, you're getting elite or near-elite production. Only Jeanty is lagging, in part because he has only two scores while the other five have 5+.
So this is shaping up to be an unprecedented season when it comes to high-volume running backs . . . unless there's a reason (like an increased possibility of in-season injuries) why this hasn't happened before.
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