There are some similarities between the 2022 Vikings and this year's Vikings. But the differences are more notable from a fantasy perspective.
That 2022 team went 11-0 in one-score games, finishing 13-4, thanks in large part to a productive offense that finished eighth in scoring. They also gave up the fifth-most points. That combination was key for fantasy managers, because in close games, Kirk Cousins frequently was slinging it late; 13 of his 29 passing TDs came in the fourth quarter, where the Vikings led the league in points scored (10.2).
Dalvin Cook also was involved late: he had 70 touches in second quarters, 68 in the third, and 66 in the fourth. He was an all-game fantasy asset.
Justin Jefferson led all receivers in targets (183), catches (128), and receiving yards (1,809). And this offense was strong enough to support several other receivers, including Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, TJ Hockenson.
The results were good-to-fantastic for fantasy managers. Cousins was the QB8. Cook was the RB11. Jefferson was the WR1, while Thielen (WR30) and Osborn (WR45) delivered occasional-to-frequent streamability. Hockenson was the TE2.
This year's team is 4-0 in one-score games, and they're now the last remaining undefeated team. But the fantasy prospects of most of their key skill players are questionable at best. Equipped with the #1 defense (based on points against), their offense doesn't need to be great for the team to be great. They've averaging the 10th-fewest points per game. Interestingly, they're averaging the fourth-most fourth-quarter points (9.0), but it's not enough to consistently help managers.
Kyler Murray is the QB35 in fantasy points per game, with a touchdown pace that would be the league's worst even if this were 1962. We might have to go back to Jim McMahon and the 1985 Bears to find a less fantasy-friendly quarterback on an undefeated team.
This is, of course, affecting the fantasy values of Justin Jefferson (WR20) and Jordan Addison (WR66). My favorite preseason TE bargain was TJ Hockenson, and both he and Aaron Jones have been the lone fantasy bright spots. But for Hockenson, he has the best catch rate of every TE with 15+ targets. He's making the most of his opportunities. Jones's value has been tied partly to Jordan Mason's absence, and with Mason back, that backfield might be a wash.
Of course, 6-0 teams don't generally bench their starting quarterback. But as discussed repeatedly over the years -- including last preseason and this preseason -- Murray has been steadily declining for years. While it's hard to compare, one could justifiably argue that he's playing worse this season than when he was effectively benched last season for an eventually 3-14 team. Despite his massive contract, the flailing Cardinals didn't hesitate to sit him when he was healthy, because they knew he was no longer in their future plans.
The best hope for managers rostering Minnesota skill players is that either (a) Murray finally returns to semi-greatness, or at least very-goodness, or (b) that the Vikings lose a few games, forcing the team to re-evaluate who they want quarterbacking this club in their final push for the playoffs. Murray is on a one-year, $1.3 million deal. He's a reclamation project. At 6-0, the effort was worth it. But not so much for managers.
That's why the next four games will help determine how much we can trust, at minimum, Jefferson and Addison. And these games could be tough: @Lions, Bills, @Packers, and @49ers. If Murray continues to struggle -- and if they're no longer winning -- we shouldn't be surprised if there are rumblings for a QB change. And if there aren't, then those rostering Jefferson or Addison in particular should expect a lot more underperformances.
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