Now that the dust has settled on the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade, a few fantasy thoughts, and as always, jump in if you have something to say.
First, this is one of those unusual situations where almost everyone's fantasy value increases or stays roughly the same. In Houston, Harrison reunites with his college quarterback C.J. Stroud, who's the QB13 in points per game. That's actually pretty impressive for a guy who's been without two of his top three WRs all season, who missed alpha wideout Nico Collins for two games, and whose backfield is among the least efficient in the league.
So Stroud and Harrison are among the biggest winners. The former now has a trusted #2, and the latter will finally (presumably) get the targets he wasn't getting in Arizona. As shared on a recent podcast, when it comes to career fantasy points per target, Harrison has been terrific. The problem has been a lack of looks. Giving up a second-round pick for a struggling receiver works *only* if he becomes a big part of their plans.
Collins shouldn't take much of a hit. Harrison hasn't yet demonstrated that he can be a reliable alpha. Last year, Collins was the WR10 in points per game despite averaging "only" 8.0 targets. (15 WRs averaged more). Stroud's favorite pass-catcher should remain a weekly fantasy starter, with potentially more scoring opportunities in a somewhat improved offense.
The Texans' only fantasy downsides are negligible. Jaylin Noel is the WR55 in points per game, while Kayshon Boutte is the WR87. Neither is rostered in most leagues. In the three games when Collins was active, Dalton Schultz (currently the TE18) averaged only 5.5 points. None of this really hurts 12-team or even 14-team-league managers.
For the Cardinals, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson should maintain their numbers, barring an unexpected offensive meltdown. The one potential hitch for Wilson is if Jacoby Brissett targets Jalen Brooks more than he did Harrison. It's possible. Harrison averaged only 3.3 targets. Brooks had seven this past weekend. Wilson struggled. It's more complicated than that, but it's also notable.
Brooks actually had more offensive snaps in Week 5 than Bourne, while Bourne frequently went toe-to-toe on snaps with Harrison in weeks 1-4. In most leagues, Bourne deservedly is a good flyer. In very deep leagues, Brooks is a receiver to watch.
And that means Brissett also doesn't lose much value, if any. He averaged a dismal 55.0 passer rating when targeting Harrison this year. Enough said.
Bigger picture -- and with more of a dynasty perspective -- I don't see how the 1-4 Texans make this all work if they don't somehow snap back into 2025 form. Next year they're projected to have a second-worst salary cap situation. Collins is locked up for one more year, and presumably Houston won't want him to leave, meaning he could be in line for a huge payday ahead of 2028. That dilemma is magnified for Stroud, who probably would command franchise-QB dollars long before he hits free agency that same year.
Harrison *also* might be a free agent in 2028. I believe the Texans will have a club option to retain him for that season. Regardless, this team easily would burn all of their available 2028 cap space -- and probably more -- if they wanted to keep Stroud, Collins and Harrison.
The Texans are coming off a season where they were only two wins short of reaching the Super Bowl. Their window for returning to greatness might be only a year-and-a-half. Harrison has to help them get over the top. That's a lot of pressure on a guy who hasn't come close to living up to lofty expectations.
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