Yesterday we walked through the relationship between wide receivers' college receptions and NFL career stats, showing how the information is both interesting but not (yet) actionable. Now let's shift to the relationship between NFL career stats and what round WRs are drafted. To recap, this data set includes the 1,000+ players who've entered the league since 2003.
One stat is the average number of college receptions for WRs based on round drafted. In the first round, it's 170. Then it drops to 161 in the second, and aside from a tick upward to 166 for third rounders, it drops steadily from that point forward: 150 in the fourth, 147 in the fifth and sixth, 138 in the seventh, and 133 among undrafted free agents.
We might conclude that the better the wideout, the more college catches they'll get (on average), and (often) the earlier they'll get drafted. Seems logical.
Pretty much the same thing happens when we examine the average "highest-reception college season" for WRs based on round drafted. First-round rookie Carnell Tate topped out at 52 catches at Ohio State, while the next wideout drafted (Jordyn Tyson four picks later) had a career-high 75 at Arizona State. Two highly touted receivers, and both below the average high for first rounders: 78. From the second round to the seventh, the average high is 72, 70, 64, 62, 62, 59, and then 56 for UDFAs.
Let's put those two strings together. What percentage of WRs' total college catches occurs in their highest-catch season? In other words, Tate's highest-catch season (52) divided by his total college catches (121) equals 42%. Is that normal? Kind of. The average percentage for first rounders is 48%. From the second to the seventh rounds, the average percentage is 47%, 44%, 46%, 45%, 45%, 46%, and 48% for UDFAs.
This was kind of a "wow" visual when I first ran the numbers on my spreadsheet. It shows that the average college wideout "profile" is consistent on at least this one metric, regardless of draft round. If there's such a thing as a "typical" rookie WR, he's someone whose highest college season output nearly matched his output during the rest of his college career. Occasionally we see guys with quiet college careers who dominate in their final campaign, or others who are consistently strong throughout. But "typically" (based on averages), this narrow 44%-to-48% range exists regardless of whether a receiver is considered elite or barely rosterable on NFL teams.
This is also somewhat reflected in fantasy production, at least for highest-touted rookie. First rounders who are in the 40% to <50% (just under 50.0%) range have averaged 1,093 career fantasy points. Among first rounders, no other 10% range (50% to <60%, 30% to <40%, etc.) averages more points. This is their sweet spot.
Overall, first rounders on average net 947 career fantasy points. From the second to the seventh rounds, the average is 615, 372, 238, 166, 119, 105, and 140 for UDFAs. Admittedly, I've been high on sixth-round rookie Malik Benson and fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen all summer. But on average, Benson is a longshot for fantasy relevance in any NFL season, while Allen is a longshot for relevance beyond a single season.
As with anything fantasy-related, there are exceptions. In 2023, the four consecutive WRs taken from picks 159 (fifth round) to 187 (sixth round) were Dontayvion Wicks, Puka Nacua, Parker Washington, and Kayshon Boutte. Nacua is an historically massive outlier. The other three have great chances to exceed draft-round-based expectations. But the four guys taken before them were Derius Davis, Charlie Jones, Tyler Scott, and Justin Shorter. Entering Week 1 that year, Nacua (for example) had the best overall ADP (292). Jones had the second-best (404). Washington was unranked (outside the top 600). We have a good sense of the probability of players exceeding expectations based on the round they were drafted. The challenge, as always, is identifying which one(s).
By the way, it's notable that UDFAs average more fantasy points than sixth and seventh rounders. This closely mirrors RB fantasy production based on sixth/seventh round and UDFA status. Sixth and seventh rounders are, on average, the worst fantasy bets.
One more set of stats that's gradually changing the way I'm assessing fantasy outlooks: median fantasy production. For example, there are 58 retired first rounders who've entered the league since 2003. Their median career fantasy point total is 782. Half of these guys finished with less than 782 points, and the other half finished with more. Dynasty managers might expect, on average, three to four fantasy-relevant seasons.
The median for second rounders is only 334, which is a 57% drop. Third rounders' median is 166 (50% drop from the second round). Fourth rounders' median is 92 (45% drop from the third). Fifth rounders' median is 29 (68% drop from the fourth). Sixth rounders' median is 13 (55% drop from the fifth). Seventh rounders' median is 7 (46% drop from the sixth). UDFAs' median is 25.
Two immediate takeaways. First, how incredible that the decline in the median is (with the exception of fourth-to-fifth rounders) so consistent, falling within a pretty narrow 45% to 57% range. There are no unusually massive drops, and (even more surprisingly) there are no narrow drops. Collectively, each round of wide receivers follows a mostly steady pattern.
Also, these numbers and percentages paint a larger picture, which is that most rookie wideouts end up whiffing throughout their careers. Nearly three-quarters of fourth and fifth rounders don't hit 250 career fantasy points. Neither do nearly 90% of sixth rounders and more than 90% of seventh rounders.
Even third rounders are more likely to score less than 250 career fantasy points vs. scoring more. Chris Bell, Zavion Thomas, Ted Hurst, Chris Brazzell, Ja'Kobi Lane, Zachariah Branch, Caleb Douglas, Malachi Fields, Antonio Williams . . . I've pushed some of these third-round rookies hard since June. But if patterns from these past 23 seasons continue, five of them will be fantasy relevant for one season at most. Maybe two could be relevant for three or more seasons.
This is one of countless reasons why it's important to understand when the odds are stacked against us. It doesn't mean we avoid risk taking. It simply means we're clear-eyed when we're drafting and on the clock.
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