Tonight's matchup features two teams that were pretty good last season, but don't look as good this season, and many fantasy managers are feeling the pain.
The visiting Falcons are a prime example of what happens when you don't have a starter-caliber NFL quarterback. Nearly two weeks ago, I wrote that "Drake London will begin the season catching passes thrown by third-stringer Cooper Rush, who was a free agent until late July, and . . . in his last four games he's thrown one TD pass and six interceptions."
Regardless of how much his back spasms impacted him, Rush was a disaster Week 1 against the Steelers and was an even greater disaster the following week against a Carolina defense that had just surrendered 59 points to the Bears. Bijan Robinson scored 31.3 points in the first one and 11.1 in the second. No other Atlanta player reached double-digits in either game.
Mercifully, Michael Penix will starter tonight. London averaged just under 20 points with Penix under center last year. If you gave up on Atlanta's uber-alpha receiver, hopefully you got decent value. He's well-positioned to post top-14 numbers the rest of the way, as long as Penix stays on the field and hasn't inexplicably regressed.
Kyle Pitts is in an entirely different category. In the five games London missed last year, Pitts averaged 19.0 points. In the other contests, he averaged only 9.6. I've written and podcasted about this before: going back to college, Pitts often has underperformed *unless* the #1 WR is sidelined. He has the talent. The fantasy market has never questioned this. The challenge is that it hasn't often translated statistically. He should be viewed as a moderately risky streamer.
Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson had 19 touches on Sunday, setting him up for an "all-he-can-handle" workload tonight. Not much more needs to be said.
For Green Bay, so much has changed since last season. Josh Jacobs is off the grid until further notice. Jayden Reed suffered a brutal injury, and reportedly there isn't yet clarity on whether he'll miss the rest of the season. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks of course are gone. So is Emanuel Wilson, who otherwise might have been a must-start RB today.
Instead, we're down to two wideouts, one tight end, and a backfield that most managers will (and should) avoid. Starting with the RBs, MarShawn Lloyd has more than tripled his rush attempts since entering the league in 2024. Yet overall he's averaging below 3.0 yards per carry, and the team scaled back his usage in Week 2's close contest, which is never a good sign. He then lost a fumble in the fourtjh quarter, which is an even worse sign.
Chris Brooks is also struggling on the ground, though not quite as much, and he's shown some prowess through the air. Steelers cast-off Kaleb Johnson might have taken over the backfield after last weekend's solid debut. Still, how much can we trust him after only eight carries? If you're going to start any Green Bay RB, it should be him. But he'll probably need to score to crack nine points.
The wideout corps is Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and not much else. Golden was the best value play among Green Bay's receivers this summer, and now he's looking like a steal compared to his WR50 ADP. And Tucker Kraft has some pop in a thinned-out group; the big question is whether he'll return to pre-injury form sometime soon. Or at least, that's what I'm wondering after trading for him yesterday.
Finally, Jordan Love is the same fantasy asset he's been for the past couple years: very capable, and not always startable. I think he'll deliver.
Final score prediction: Packers win 31-16. Leave your prediction below.