On Monday night I looked ahead to see who I'd be facing in Week 2, hoping for the best. But it was the worst: I was facing Josh Allen, who was matched up against a team that just surrendered 30 second-half / overtime points to the Saints at home. Allen had just posted 35.7 points against a supposedly elite defense on the road. As a manager, things looked bleak.
But as a fantasy fan, I wanted to know if Allen was on the verge of making history. What's the most fantasy points a QB's scored in the first two weeks of a season? It turns out 2018 was a banner year for Week 1&2 quarterbacks. In his first full season under center, Patrick Mahomes officially kicked off his career with 67.1 points in those first two contests.
That would have been the all-time record. Except on the same day Mahomes hit that mark, 35-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick set the record: 72.3 points. He was nearly flawless against the Saints (Week 1) and Eagles (Week 2). For context, the Saints were coming off a title-contending season, losing to the Vikings in the playoffs -- that famous 61-yard TD pass as time expired. And the Eagles were the defending Super Bowl champions.
So for Fitzpatrick to carve up both defenses was incredible. But he had plenty of help: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and DeSean Jackson. That's kind of all you need.
Last night, Josh Allen capped this opening two-week run with 40.8 points, giving him 76.5 through two games. He didn't have Evans, Godwin, and Jackson -- one future Hall-of-Famer and two longtime impact starters. Last night, DJ Moore was knocked out in the first half after collecting only one carry for a negative yard and zero catches. James Cook caught only one pass. Allen got the best out of (and arguably *helped* get the best out of) Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer, and Keon Coleman.
One week ago, it would've been nearly impossible to envision Allen posting 40+ fantasy points with those five guys. But a week later, it somehow makes sense. 2023 first rounder Kincaid is finally healthy and living up to his potential. 2024 second rounder Coleman had one of the best performances of his career. 2021 third rounder Palmer had only one TD reception across 27 games in 2024 and 2025. Now he has two in two games.
Meanwhile, Allen -- possibly one of the most productive dual-threat quarterbacks we'll see in our lifetimes -- is now tied for the 18th-most rushing TDs (85). That's all-time. He's right behind Marshawn Lynch and Priest Holmes. After that, Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, Franco Harris, and Jerome Bettis. Next year he might pass Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk to crack the top 10.
FitzMagic needed back-to-back 400+ passing yards and back-to-back four-passing-TD days to reach 72.3 points. Allen's magic is that he can do it all . . . and that at this point in his career, he's pretty much done it all. Congratulations if you drafted him.
For the rest of the Bills, Moore's injury obviously has significant implications not only for him, but also for whether guys like Coleman are suddenly rosterable. Regardless, at this point I'd put more trust in Coleman than in Palmer. Sure, Palmer has the scores. But two TDs on five targets doesn't inspire season-long confidence. Neither does his track record as a situational fantasy streamer. If Moore misses time, Coleman might have the highest ceiling among Buffalo's wideouts, while Shakir has the best floor.
For the Lions, it took a while, but eventually four of their "big five" hit or exceeded their realistic fantasy targets. Jameson Williams might have lost a little ground to Isaac TeSlaa, at least in the short term. I'm still comfortable with Williams as a buy-low wideout, though clearly there are concerns.
Not much needs to be said about Jared Goff or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Sam LaPorta is off to a surprisingly terrific start, including 15 targets so far, putting him on pace for 128. After a down 2024 and injury-plagued 2025, he's looking more like his 2023 rookie-breakout self.
As for Jahmyr Gibbs, as discussed in yesterday's podcast, his 34 touches on Sunday meant we should expect (based on data going back to 2012) a roughly 37.8% decline in touches on Thursday. As it turned out, the decline was 35.3%. RBs with his Sunday workload have averaged a 34.1% decline in fantasy points on Thursday. Gibbs' decline last night was 30.7%.
I share this for the same reason I did the episode. Gibbs is a must-start RB, and (relatively speaking) he came up big yesterday. And it's also a reminder of how eerily predictive these stats are. On Sunday, the Falcons will face the Panthers. Four days later, Atlanta will head to Green Bay. Given the state of Atlanta's offense, Robinson (who had 29 touches in Week 1) easily could crack 25 touches this weekend. If anything close to that happens, managers should anticipate a pretty steep drop-off on Thursday.
On a side note, Gibbs now has 56 touches, putting him on pace for 476, plus whatever he'd get in the playoffs if Detroit makes it that far. That's a scary workload, even for a 24-year-old. Great news for managers needing elite numbers. While it's too soon for dynasty managers to be concerned, the Lions' active roster suggests nothing will change anytime soon. Sione Vaki had only one carry and one catch yesterday. Jacob Saylors stuck to return duties. It seems the Lions don't (yet) trust either one to be even a glorified handcuff. This team seems content to give Gibbs everything he can handle. Again, great news, and also not ideal for year-to-year durability.
Finally, for the final-score contest, some major drama. In the opener last Wednesday, Nick Kishbaugh came closest. The following night, Jim Richardson won the prize. Last night, they finished second and first, respectively. Nick was four points off, while Jim was only three. Congratulations to both for dominating this event, and hat's off to Jim for joining an exclusive club of back-to-back winners.