We're finally here. The first of 256 games (or 272 if Week 18 is your fantasy championship). The NFL could expand it to 500+ in our lifetimes. Who knows. But right now, this first game means something for many of us.
The Seahawks and Patriots will kick off this season, just like they ended the last one, when Seattle won the Super Bowl by the fourth-largest point margin in the previous 22 years. (Yeah, we've been pretty spoiled by thrilling Super Bowl finishes.) Some big-name departures and additions these past seven months. Let's try to make sense of what we're about to see.
For the Seahawks, rookie Jadarian Price is a pressure-point fantasy player. He was the subject of my second podcast this season. I chose him because I believed he would be one of the biggest pressure-point players entering Week 1: very talented, limited college touches, and a somewhat crowded backfield that will become more crowded when Zach Charbonnet is healthy.
George Holani is the only RB holdover from last year's team. He and the more capable Emanuel Wilson presumably will be unstartable. But any work they get will cap Price's ceiling, and if we believe reports coming out of camp, Price isn't guaranteed a sizable workload. I would fade this backfield in Week 1 and (for what it's worth) would try to trade Price to an opponent before the game.
Sam Darnold took a big step back in fantasy last season, though of course he doesn't care. He's got a ring. But fantasy managers care, because none of us have rings. (Or if you do have a ring, please share that story below, because it's probably a doozy.) Seven times last year he posted less than nine points. There's probably room to grow in a marginally-to-meaningfully reduced backfield. We'll see tonight if he looks poised to snap back.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn't need any words. His WR teammates do. This team traded for Rashid Shaheed last year after losing fifth-round rookie Tory Horton. Cooper Kupp is 33. Horton is dealing with an injured hamstring. Shaheed has a great opening to claim the #2 job, secure 85+ targets, and produce top-40 numbers. Let's see how he operates alongside Kupp.
And I'm out on tight end. A.J. Barner is ascending. He also was the TE21 in points per game last year and isn't necessarily in a better spot this year. He's among a large group of TEs who probably need 7+ touchdowns to finish in the top 14.
For the Patriots, things are even more streamlined. With TreVeyon Henderson out, Rhamondre Stevenson should dominate touches tonight. Drake Maye is a weekly starter with a realistic QB1 ceiling this season. 31-year-old Hunter Henry is clinging to fantasy relevance with third-round rookie Eli Raridon looming.
Then things get complicated, at least for me. A.J. Brown *should* dominate based on his ADP. For many reasons already shared here and on the podcast, I view him as both a must-start weekly WR (of course), and also a higher-than-normal injury risk. He is obviously one of the keys to New England returning to the Super Bowl. If Brown has a questionable tag later this season, it'll mean a lot more than a questionable tag for most WRs. The Patriots need him to be healthy for the postseason.
And while Romeo Doubs appears to be the #2 WR, I think his range of fantasy outcomes is pretty big. Like Shaheed, he has a shot at top-40 production, and also an outside shot at breaking through if Brown misses a few games. Or DeMario Douglas could step up, cutting into Doubs' upside. I'm very interested in seeing how this wideout corps looks compared to last year's.
Final score prediction: Patriots win 23-16. Leave your prediction below, and if you're closest, feel free to ping me so you can get a shout-out tomorrow.
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