In remembrance . . .
And now the reason you're here:
Last night, 2022's final NFL draft pick -- "Mr. Irrelevant" -- outplayed 2009's #1 overall draft pick. But that doesn't nearly tell the whole story. 14 of Brock Purdy's 34 pass attempts went to players he'd never thrown to before. Seven more went to Deebo Samuel, who he last threw to nearly two years ago. Two other receivers (De'Zhaun Stribling and Jake Tonges) exited early. Yet he and the Niners largely excelled against the team with the best preseason Super Bowl odds.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford spread the ball around to 10 teammates. All 10 were guys he threw to last season. Five have played with him for more than three years. 37-year-old Stafford led the NFL last season in passing yards and passing TDs. But this is 38-year-old Stafford, and while that might seem jokey (hey, it's only a one-year difference), his odds of replicating last year's output looked dim all summer. Now it looks a little dimmer.
I'm writing this after midnight, and it's too soon to know the severity of Stribling's and Tonges's injuries. The latter was deservedly a trendy Best Ball pick, serving as a starter-ready backup to nearly 33-year-old George Kittle. The former, of course, was one of the preseason's trendiest breakout rookies. A podcast episode I did early this summer discussed how he was in a deceptively prime landing spot, despite the packed receiving corps. He looked poised to play not only a #3 WR role, but also a much larger role if Mike Evans or Samuel missed time.
So while we wait for news, nearly 33-year-old Demarcus Robinson is likeliest to serve as the #3. He's been almost entirely TD-dependent for years. Lacking Stribling's ceiling, Robinson's presence clearly would be a net boost for Evans and Samuel.
If you're disappointed about Christian McCaffrey's output, the good news is that he looked great -- much better than I expected, honestly. The "putting things in perspective" news is that he had 15 touches. Across 17 games, that would put him at 255. If the Niners make a playoff run, he could approach or even exceed 300. Only 12 other running backs had 300+ touches last season (including the playoffs). 11 RBs had 300+ the year before.
McCaffrey's 450 touches last season was not normal. Neither is 400. In the past 15 years, an RB has cracked 350+ touches only 48 times. It'll be interesting to see if San Francisco continues to keep his usage somewhat in check. It's not ideal for managers, especially with rookie Kaelon Black looking like a legit glorified handcuff. But there's nothing unusual about a bell cow getting "only" 300 touches. We're simply accustomed to seeing McCaffrey do more.
And as I was about to wrap this up just now, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that Tonges's injury "doesn't look good." Kittle's per-game ceiling remains high, and his lower-than-usual floor gets a bump.
Finally, Jim Richardson (Niners 24-20) had the best final-score prediction. Kenny Lee (24-21) was a close second. But only first place matters, so Jim deserves a final mention and all of the accolades he can handle.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 249: "Kaelon Black and Blake Corum" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
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