With ADPs mostly solidified in the final days of the preseason, we can take a closer look at how these rankings compare to previous years', because it tells us a lot (or at least "a decent amount") about whether the fantasy market is spot-on or way off about certain players. Today let's zoom in on one sliver of ADPs: old vs. young WRs.
As shared previously here or on the podcast, the fantasy market (on balance) overvalues older wideouts and undervalues younger wideouts. Maybe the clearest example of this comes from data pulled from my "ADP versus Production" spreadsheet, which goes back 14 seasons (to 2012). It includes the ADPs of the top players at each position, plus how they performed that season, games played, etc. It also includes everyone's age.
On the WR tab, this data set includes 138 players who were aged 21-23, 247 players aged 24-26, 192 players aged 27-29, and 123 players aged 30 and older. The age groups are different depending on the position; for example, they're more expansive for QBs. For WRs, I generally view 21-23 year-olds as pre-prime, 24-26 year-olds as early-to-mid prime, 27-29 year-olds as mid-to-late prime, and 30+ year-olds as post-prime. These designations of course could be debated, but you'll see shortly why it's important to have them.
Among the top-50 preseason WRs, 21-23-year-olds on average have the worst ADP (31). 27-29 year-olds have the best (23). The other two groups average 25 ADPs. And yet, 21-23 year-olds exceed ADP expectations more than any other age group. 24-26 year-olds do better than their ADPs the next-most frequently. 27-29-year-olds are better the third-most frequently. 30+ year-olds are by far the least likely to exceed expectations, having done so only 28% of the time.
In fairness, it's hard to exceed expectations if your ADP is WR1, WR2, etc. But the oldest group generally isn't represented among the elite or near-elite WRs. In the previous 14 years, only 22 30+year-olds (16%) have had top-10 ADPs, while only 51 (18%) have had top-20 ADPs. In fact, if current ADPs hold, this will be the second consecutive preseason where zero top-10 ADP WRs have been 30+ years old. That's happened only one other time since 2012.
Even more interestingly, this would be the first time since 2012 that no WRs in the top *20* are 30+ years old. The average had been 3.6 per preseason. So to go from 3.6 to zero is pretty remarkable, and it also contributes to one of the most interesting stats: the average age of this year's top-20 ADP WRs is 25.8, which is tied for the lowest mark since 2012.
Going a step further, an average of 5.4 30+ year-olds had ADPs in the top 30 from 2012 to 2025. This summer it's only three -- tied for the second-fewest since 2012. Some of this probably is due to perceived declining ceilings for older wideouts. But that thinking doesn't happen in a vacuum; it's also due to an outsized group of 24-26 and 27-29 year-olds dominating the scene. In another year, the fantasy market might have valued 33-year-old Davante Adams (WR24 ADP) inside the top 20. But he's competing against a lot most in-their-prime WRs than usual.
So it's no accident that nearly every 30+ year-old inside the ADP top-100 WRs is a fade on my spreadsheet. The only one tagged as a bargain is 32-year-old Stefon Diggs (WR40 ADP) . . . and that's because is primary competition for targets will be nearly 31-year-old teammate Terry McLaurin.
Either the fantasy market is adjusting to the reality of the risks of aged WRs, or there are simply fewer aged WRs starting in the NFL. Or maybe it's both. Whatever the reason, this is a pretty unique aged-based period for fantasy WRs. And with four top-40 ADP WRs entering their age-29 seasons, it will be interesting to see how the market values them next summer.
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