In the first two weeks last season, a lot of RBs struggled . . . and then went on to be fantasy-relevant. Tony Pollard started off with 7.9 and 9.2 points, then averaged 11.2 the rest of the way to finish as RB23. Kenny Gainwell posted 5.3 and 6.6 points, then averaged 14.0 points the rest of the way to finish as the RB16.
Kyle Monangai totaled only 6.7 points across Weeks 1 and 2. Rico Dowdle: 6.5. Woody Marks: 6.3. Across the first six weeks, Chase Brown was averaging single-digits. He averaged 20.4 points the rest of the way.
Same thing for several wide receivers. Michael Wilson had only 9.6 points in the first two weeks. A.J. Brown had 9.5. Both finished the season among the top-12 WRs. Luther Burden had only 2.2 points thru Week 2. How many managers regretted drafting him around his WR61 ADP, wishing instead they'd targeted Rome Odunze (47.5 points thru Week 2) around his WR34 ADP?
Except from Week 3 'til the end of the season, Odunze averaged only 9.9 points per game while missing five others. Burden averaged 9.7 points per game while missing two others. Based on summer rankings, it wasn't supposed to happen that way. Based on Weeks 1 and 2, it *really* wasn't supposed to happen that way.
But sometimes it does, and we're in the midst of that chaos.
Among the underperforming RBs (based on preseason ADP), Quinshon Judkins is averaging single-digits. So are Jadarian Price, Pollard, Gainwell, Rico Dowdle, JK Dobbins, and even Saquon Barkley. Mike Washington was one of the trendiest bargains in the days leading up to Week 1. Now he's no more valuable than a handcuff bench stash.
I believe some of these guys won't snap back. This summer I warned against a few of them, including Price, who I ranked 39 spots below his overall-56 ADP. His college usage and Seattle's crowded backfield (which soon will be more crowded) made him a massive fade. Managers waiting for him to reach his supposed potential might be waiting until next year or longer.
I ranked Dobbins 43 spots below his overall-88 ADP. An extensive injury history and a similarly crowded backfield made him an unnecessary risk. Jonah Coleman deservedly has the most value in that RB corps. Dobbins is a longshot to average double-digit points this year.
What about Barkley? It's early Wednesday morning, and I still haven't seen anything about his MRI, which was scheduled Monday. Regardless, I ranked Tank Bigsby 53 spots ahead of his overall-166 ADP. He was one of my favorite handcuffs. But that doesn't mean abandon Barkley, unless you can get top-12 RB value for him (which you likely can't unless his MRI comes back clean). The fact is, a healthy Barkley can still be a top-16 guy, even if Bigsby's getting 10 touches a game.
Among wideouts, one of my favorite rookie flyers, Malik Benson, has less than one fantasy point. Jordan Addison (4.1), Marvin Harrison Jr. (4.3), Makai Lemon (4.4), and Quentin Johnston (6.1) aren't doing much better. Courtland Sutton has only 8.6.
Sutton was predictable given the more crowded receiving corps and his advancing age. But I expected -- and still expect -- Johnston to break through, although clearly I could be completely wrong about that. The same goes for Harrison, who I thought would be at least streamable in a plus offense.
Among these guys, Addison and Johnston are great buy-lows. The former has nowhere to go but up with Kyler Murray back under center, and once the Chargers' offense more closely resembles last year's (if that's possible), Johnston *should* return to relevance. But Harrison, Lemon, and Sutton are in tougher situations and truly are bench stashes at best.
So this isn't a time to throw in the towel on everyone who's burning a hole in your fantasy lineup. For example, Addison is on pace for a 34-179-0 receiving line. Gainwell is on pace for a career-low 281 total yards after clearing 1,000 last season. The Bucs handed him nearly $10 million guaranteed . . . to get five or six touches a game?
Take a step back and assess whose poor numbers are easily correctible, and whose are symptoms of a long-term usage shift. Poor game scripts in the first two weeks can mess with usage. We won't really know what some of these guys can do in 2026 until we're well into October.
If nothing else, remember the Odunze-Burden example. As I often say, talent usually wins in the end. If you have a healthy, talented, underperforming skill player on a team with a healthy #1 QB, these things often work out.
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