If we believe in the law of fantasy averages, then many or most "must-start" players who unperformed last week *should* rebound this week. Similarly, many or most "unstartable" players who crushed it last week *should* come back down to earth. Or at least, that's one theory. It holds true pretty often, though not often enough for those of us who get burned on both ends.
As always on Saturday, let's briefly highlight who I think is the biggest fantasy pressure point for each team playing tomorrow. In many cases, their values are about to significantly shift.
Falcons -- Does Kyle Pitts belong on the bench? The good news is that he can't do any worse than he did in Week 1. The bad news is that he did nothing in Week 1 . . . and the bottom-tier QB situation cannot be ignored.
Panthers -- Is Tetairoa McMillan a safer start than teammate Jalen Coker? Strange to wonder this after only one game. But it was quite a game.
Bears -- Chicago's "big three" receivers somehow underwhelmed in the opener despite the team scoring 59 points. Surely all three will be fine. My question since the summer has been whether Rome Odunze or Luther Burden is the better bet.
Vikings -- With Jordan Mason sidelined, is sixth-round rookie Demond Claiborne rosterable in most leagues? My sense is "not yet." He was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and this summer rushed for only 73 yards on 28 carries (2.6 YPC). Regardless, 31-year-old Aaron Jones is a major fantasy pressure point -- a guy who should be entirely startable, and yet carries massive risks.
Titans -- Once again, Carnell Tate vs. Wan'Dale Robinson, plus "will it even matter?"
Eagles -- DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley will get into their groove. The bigger question remains Makai Lemon vs. Dontayvion Wicks.
Patriots -- The receiving corps minus A.J. Brown is a giant question mark. But the bigger fantasy pressure point in my opinion concerns TreVeyon Henderson's usage, which realistically could be as little as seven touches and as much as 15.
Steelers -- Last year, the aged Aaron Rodgers averaged 1.5 TD passes per game. The only fantasy-relevant wideout (DK Metcalf) caught six, which helped keep him inside the top 30 despite catching only 59 passes for 850 yards. Now with Michael Pittman in the picture, how much can managers confidently start either one?
Jets -- Could Kenyon Sadiq be a top-10 TE?
Packers -- MarShawn Lloyd vs. Chris Brooks, with the "will it even matter" caveat.
Buccaneers -- Baker Mayfield vs. the guy who replaced him in Cleveland. Although Mike Evans is no longer here to help elevate him, Mayfield still has the playmakers to be a top-12 QB. But his erratic play last season -- including 10 TD passes and nine interceptions from Week 11 onward -- lingers.
Browns -- It wouldn't be shocking if this were the final NFL start for "the guy who replaced Baker Mayfield in Cleveland." If you're still holding onto Quinshon Judkins or Harold Fannin, hopefully they'll snap back. But this is why I faded all Browns players this summer.
Ravens -- With Zay Flowers doubtful and Ja'Kobi Lane on injured reserve, which receivers will step up? A year ago, I would have tagged Rashod Bateman as a nice flyer. Not anymore. Devontez Walker and rookie Elijah Sarratt will push for looks, making all three highly risky. My biggest question is whether Mark Andrews can recapture his former magic. Now 31 years old, it's been almost exactly one year since he last cracked 50 receiving yards. This might be one of his last best chances to dominate.
Saints -- Some trendy waiver adds become trendy drops a week later. Devaughn Vele presumably has season-long value as New Orleans' #2 wideout. He's on the cusp of weekly streamability, though rookie Bryce Lance looms.
Texans -- Who will operate as Houston's #1 WR with Nico Collins out? There are three realistic candidates: Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel, and Xavier Hutchinson. On a side note, it's incredible to think that only a month ago, there were three different starters: Collins, Jayden Higgins, and (when healthy) Tank Dell.
Bengals -- A back injury shouldn't keep Joe Burrow off the field, though it did earn him a questionable tag. Risk-embracing fantasy managers understand that when Cincy's "big four" are healthy, amazing things can (and often do) happen. Risk-*averse* managers understand that Burrow's missed 6+ games in three of six seasons.
Broncos -- Nowhere to go but up, with many eyes on Jaylen Waddle. I podcasted earlier this week about the historical anomaly of a longtime #2 WR being thrust into a #1 role on a new team . . . with nearly every other skill player returning. Waddle isn't filling an offensive hole; he's trying to carve a new hole, which is much harder to do. My concern is that he'll be just as good as -- not better than -- Denver's other starting wideouts for much of the season.
Jaguars -- If you drafted Brian Thomas, did you feel excited, indifferent, or resigned? He's exceeded 12 fantasy points only twice in his last 15 games. Still only 23 years old, the former first rounder isn't a lost cause by any stretch. But when we consider how many recent first rounders have fallen well short of expectations (Xavier Legette, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Jalen Reagor, N'Keal Harry, and so on . . .), it adds perspective to Thomas's relative struggles.
Chargers -- I still firmly believe that Quentin Johnston will finish in the top 35, while Tre' Harris is a better-than-50/50 bet to finish in the top 50. Of course, this assumes L.A.'s offense gets on track.
Raiders -- Jack Bech's touchdown made him the only Vegas WR to exceed 5.7 fantasy points. None of the team's wideouts surpasses three catches or 27 yards. 6.5% of the time since 1998, a team hasn't produced a top-50 WR. Although it's been only one game, the preseason demonstrated that no Raider wideout had claimed the top job. Managers rostering any of them should consider that there's a 33% or even 25% chance of guessing right, and even then, "guessing right" might not yield someone streamable.
Cowboys -- Is Jake Ferguson droppable in 12-team leagues? In 11 contests since Week 8 last season, he has 70.3 points, or 6.4 per game. He's had a tough time breaking through with both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the field.
Commanders -- Is Terry McLaurin . . . benchable? Not yet. But as discussed frequently this summer, this is the first time in his career when he's no longer the unquestioned alpha. A regression was always the likeliest scenario. My question now is how steep the regression will be.
Cardinals -- Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a similar boat with Brian Thomas: two recent first rounders who've occasionally flashed, but who haven't (yet) fully delivered. Kendrick Bourne's usage and productivity last weekend should make managers at least a little anxious, especially after everything that happened last year. Let's see how Harrison does tomorrow.
Seahawks -- Jadarian Price vs. George Holani vs. (maybe) Emanuel Wilson. Price exceeded my expectations in Week 1. He has a window to assert himself in this offense before Zach Charbonnet returns. Will he seize it?
49ers -- Christian McCaffrey's usage is a major pressure point. Many managers probably would love to see him get 23+ touches, putting him on track for nearly 400. In reality, the team might decide limiting their 30-year-old franchise RB to roughly 16-18 touches would position them better for a deep playoff run.
Dolphins -- Should managers be concerned about De'Von Achane? I was down on him this summer, but not *really* down on him -- only enough to draft Jaylen Wright with my final pick. Remember, this is the worst offense Achane has played in. Touchdowns might be hard to come by.
Chiefs -- Add Xavier Worthy to the Brian Thomas / Marvin Harrison Jr. conversation. At what point would managers decide to throw in the towel? Or . . . is this an ideal moment to invest in Kansas City's #2 WR?
Colts -- Maybe it's too soon to think this team is on the verge of a disastrous season. But consider that five of their next seven games are on the road, where they'll face the Chiefs, Commanders, Steelers, Vikings, and Jaguars. There's a realistic scenario where the Colts are 3-5 or worse at the trade deadline -- only a year after being a major buyer at the trade deadline. Daniel Jones arguably played his best football last season before getting hurt. Any sustained diminishment this season could wreak havoc on his receivers' fantasy values.
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