Week 1's Sunday games might have left you either thrilled, disappointed, or waiting to see what happens tonight. Each Monday morning, I walk through the most notable fantasy storyline for each Sunday team, helping to shape how we might approach waiver strategy, trade offers, and lineup decisions. Here are the storylines I'm tracking most closely:
Bengals -- Mike Gesicki (preseason ADP TE48) will be a trendy pickup this week for TE-needy managers, but not for the right reasons. The nearly 31-year-old is usually good for two or three good-to-fantastic outings each season. Yesterday's outburst came at the expense of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Let an opponent lunge for Gesicki.
Buccaneers -- Saturday's post: "We need to see how Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell split snaps." Sunday: Irving was the clear 1A and kept getting fed despite losing a fumble early. It's only one game, but it signals that Gainwell should remain benched until/unless he gets more usage in the passing game.
Lions -- 18 times since 2012, a running back has had 30+ touches on Sunday and then played four days later (Thursday). On average they scored 34.1% fewer points on Thursday while averaging 12.4 fewer touches. Only five times has an RB had 34+ touches heading into a Thursday game. Jahmyr Gibbs had 34 touches yesterday. Managers should anticipate 10+ combined touches for Sione Vaki and/or Jacob Saylors, making one of them potentially relevant in deep leagues.
Saints -- Kendre Miller had nine carries and a touchdown. I hadn't even considered that he might be fantasy relevant. His value likely is now higher than his realistic rest-of-season output.
Titans -- Saturday: "Will Carnell Tate or Wan'Dale Robinson serve as Cam Ward's #1 WR . . . and just as importantly, can at least one of them serve as a reliable fantasy starter?" Sunday: An ugly offensive performance, made uglier by the fact that neither Tate nor Robinson cleared six targets, despite a negative game script.
Jets -- Omar Cooper's ankle injury could clear the way for Adonai Mitchell and/or Kenyon Sadiq to be streamable at their respective positions.
Colts -- Saturday: "Daniel Jones's arm turned out to be irreplaceable after he was knocked out last season. Can he pick up where he left off and help elevate his talented receivers?" Sunday: Jonathan Taylor did his part; Jones did not, which helps explain why Tyler Warren topped all three wideouts (Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, and Alex Pierce) with only 10.3 fantasy points.
Ravens -- Zay Flowers' (and to a much lesser extent, Ja'Kobi Lane's) injuries could dramatically change fantasy dynamics entering Week 2. Mark Andrews could become a must-start TE if Flowers misses time. But I don't see any other WR being trustworthy as a streamer.
Steelers -- Saturday: "How will Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle split the work?" Sunday: Warren out-touched Dowdle 15-10 and significantly outplayed him . . . aside from a lost fumble. But that happened in the opening quarter. Dowdle's streamability entering Week 2 takes a hit.
Falcons -- Saturday: "Drake London obviously is must-start receiver, but Kyle Pitts is trickier, especially with Cooper Rush under center." Sunday: Apparently not even London is safe. Those who benched Pitts escaped fantasy pain. London is paradoxically a buy-low and sell-high WR. On the buy side, he should be "fine" this year as Atlanta's uber-alpha receiver. On the sell side, a healthy Tua Tagovailoa won't necessarily fix things. These next two games will tell us a lot about whether London will return to top-10 form, or if poor quarterback play could crush his ceiling.
Panthers -- Saturday: "Chuba Hubbard vs. Jonathon Brooks." Sunday: Hubbard crushed it; Brooks showed promise. If you're rostering one or both, I would trade them away for preseason ADP value (shouldn't be hard with Hubbard). Facing Chicago at home might be their most favorable matchup of the season. Also, I have to mention Jalen Coker. Wow. Not sure what to make of it given all of the conditions that had to line up for this former UDFA to be this week's overall WR1 heading into Monday Night Football. But we can't ignore it.
Bears -- Saturday: "I'm curious whether Rome Odunze and Luther Burden can both be weekly fantasy starters." Sunday: The highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history resulted in a combined 7-111-0 receiving line for the Bears' top-two wideouts. If we throw Colston Loveland into the mix, it's still 7-111-0. A statistical improbability. Don't rush out to add 32-year-old WR Kalif Raymond. Stick with the plan: Burden and Odunze should be fine.
Jaguars -- Saturday: "Who will lead this backfield, and will it be enough to give managers a reliable weekly streamer?" Sunday: Bhayshul Tuten's single-digit fantasy performance is misleading. While Chris Rodriguez continues to loom, Tuten strengthened his positioning as a must-stream RB.
Browns -- Saturday: "Everyone on this team is a pressure point, at least until we see whether Deshaun Watson can help move this offense." Sunday: Of course he couldn't. I shared over the summer that I wouldn't draft any Cleveland players. The decision to trade for Watson looked catastrophic in 2023, and nothing has changed since. The decision to keep starting him year after year (when healthy) is embarrassing, and presumably nothing *will* change unless/until the team rips off the band-aid and puts anyone else under center. It won't necessarily solve the problem immediately. But it might help make some Cleveland skill players streamable later this season, once Watson's replacement gets into a rhythm.
Texans -- Saturday: "David Montgomery vs. Woody Marks." Sunday: A horrendous miss, as I ranked Montgomery way below his ADP. He was one of Sunday's fantasy heroes. Thrilled for those of you who believed in him enough to draft him. I realize that issuing another warning about him might seem pointless. But consider one thing: the opposing Bills had one of last year's worst run defenses (5.1 YPC) and aren't expected to show meaningful improvement this year. Montgomery averaged only 3.0 YPC. His 18-yard TD run (running through a big hole untouched) was earned, and also is a reminder that he averaged only 2.2 YPC on his other 19 runs.
Bills -- Saturday: "After two years of declining production, can 29-year-old D.J. Moore offer weekly startability?" Sunday: A 43-yard TD reception near the end of the first half gave managers what they needed. He finished with 21 points. It's an ideal start for managers who bet on Moore rebounding. On a side note, Dalton Kincaid's blow-up seemingly came out of nowhere. He was the first TE taken in the 2023 draft. Injuries have undercut his development. Maybe he's poised to enter must-start territory.
Raiders -- Saturday: "Ashton Jeanty vs. Mike Washington Jr." Sunday: It pains me that Jeanty was my preseason RB3 before he got hurt. Then I got scared and dropped him pretty far down. Two things to consider: target monster Brock Bowers wasn't on the field, and they had a positive game script against the lowly Dolphins. So while Jeanty is a locked-in bell cow, there will be heavier headwinds almost every other week.
Dolphins -- Saturday: "Who will be Malik Willis's #1 target, and will it be enough to make anyone (other than De'Von Achane) startable?" Sunday: Some of you bet on Caleb Douglas this summer, and so far it's looking good. Malik Washington lost a fumble as the #2; Douglas could be this team's lone top-50 WR. Still too early, and Willis's ceiling as a passer remains relatively low. But those with Chris Bell and any other Miami WR might decide it's not worth burning a roster spot.
Vikings -- Kyler Murray's head injury opened the door for Carson Wentz to (once again) prove that his NFL career is far from over. While the sample size is different, Wentz out-played Murray, who's playing on a cheap one-year contract. In other words, Murray isn't guaranteed a starting job when healthy, just as he wasn't guaranteed his old starting job after getting hurt last year in Arizona. The Bears' beatable defense is on deck. If Wentz shines (with enormous help from Justin Jefferson and modest help from my favorite preseason TE bargain, TJ Hockenson), it could create an interesting dilemma for this team.
Packers -- Saturday: "Can MarShawn Lloyd prove that he belongs firmly atop the depth chart while Josh Jacobs is out?" Sunday: No. I did a podcast episode several weeks ago discussing Lloyd as both draftable and also unreliable. He's been injured for almost his entire NFL career. 26-year-old former UDFA Chris Brooks looked better. I would be cautious about starting either RB until/unless one establishes himself as a consistent 1A.
Eagles -- Saturday: "Makai Lemon vs. Dontayvion Wicks." Sunday: Not shockingly, the experienced Wicks looks more NFL-ready than first-round rookie Makai Lemon. That should change as the season progresses. For now, Wicks should be viewed as boom-bust in a sub-par passing offense, while Lemon is merely a bench stash.
Commanders -- Saturday: "Terry McLaurin vs. Stefon Diggs." Sunday: Several times this summer I warned that for the first time in his career, the nearly 31-year-old McLaurin isn't Washington's automatic #1 WR. My central question was how this seven-year alpha receiver would adjust to being a less-targeted option. It's hard enough to trust McLaurin when Diggs easily out-targets him. It's even harder to trust McLaurin when rookie Antonio Williams posts a 4-64-1 line.
Chargers -- Saturday: "Ladd McConkey vs. Quentin Johnston vs. . . . Tre' Harris?" Sunday: McConkey dominated (to my surprise) early and then exited with a chest injury. Johnston and Harris each earned six targets, but didn't capitalize. It was an all-around tough day for this team, so we might chalk it up to that. Still, if McConkey is good to go for Week 2, we'll have a better sense of whether he's the unquestioned #1, or if things will even out like they did last season.
Cardinals -- Saturday: "The NFL's most underrated offense in my opinion." Sunday: This summer I could not understand why the Cards had one of the worst Super Bowl odds, and why Jacoby Brissett had a QB29 ADP. It was as if last season never happened. This is built to be a top-12 offense. I drafted three Cardinals. As many as six can be fantasy relevant this year, and that doesn't even include 31-year-old spot-start hero Kendrick Bourne, who could be a thorn in the side of managers who need Marvin Harrison Jr. and/or Michael Wilson to shine.
Giants -- In terms of big-time stats, Isaiah Likely proved why he was a trendy fantasy TE this summer. But I think the more interesting fantasy angle is who will be the 1B behind Cam Skattebo. Tyrone Tracy coughed up the ball in the red zone, enabling Devin Singletary to get plenty of run (10 touches and a touchdown). New addition Najee Harris is waiting in the wings. Singletary's usage is not ideal for managers hoping to land a Giants spot starter if Skattebo is sidelined again.
Cowboys -- On a night when Dak Prescott and George Pickens significantly underwhelmed, the bigger story to me is Jake Ferguson, who was marginally out-played by TE Brevyn Spann-Ford. In the four games that CeeDee Lamb effectively missed last year (including his zero-target, seven-snap Week 3 when he got hurt), Ferguson averaged 18.6 points. He averaged only 8.7 the rest of the season, which for context was the same as Colby Parkinson. Ferguson is one of a couple dozen TD-dependent tight ends who -- like the Bucs' Cade Otton -- is only startable when a high-impact wideout is sidelined.
---
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 252: "Fantasy Panic? Ja'Marr Chase, Drake London, and Terry McLaurin" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Sign up for Text Anytime ($30/month):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell