The fantasy market has been a bit spoiled for much of the past decade because of Travis Kelce. He was the #1 TE in six of seven seasons from 2016 thru 2022. He's been top 5 in the three years since. It's arguably the second-greatest fantasy run by a tight end, behind only fellow Chiefs legend Tony Gonzalez, who was the TE1 six times and TE2 three times across a 10-year stretch beginning in 1999.
Since 2012, 49% of the top-10 fantasy TEs were ranked among the preseason top-10 TEs based on ADP. If we remove the bankable, dominant Kelce from the equation, that figure drops to 45%. Similarly, since 2012, 49% of the top-5 fantasy TEs were preseason top-5 ADP TEs. Take out Kelce, and that drops to 40%.
So outside of Kelce, the top preseason TEs haven't been very reliable. Remember ADP TE4 O.J. Howard in 2019? Despite being only 25 years old, he was never again ranked inside the top 20. What happened to Darren Waller, ADP's TE2 in 2021? He never again finished inside the top 16, despite two more inexplicable top-5 preseason rankings in 2022 and 2023.
I believe that Kelce's consistently elite seasons have influenced the market -- if only just a bit -- into believing that the next Kelce is here, whether it's Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or another young, ascending talent. But in the past 10 seasons, while Kelce has cracked 16+ points four times, no other TE has done it more than once. Several guys have been consistently good statistically. But aside from George Kittle, no one else has been consistently *great* statistically. And certainly on one else has been consistently elite.
Throughout his elite years, Kelce didn't enter any season with notable yellow flags. That's why his overall ADP (top-25 or better each year from 2018 thru 2024) regularly made him a first- or second-round pick.
Kelce's age-26 season marked the first of 11 straight preseasons where his ADP was inside the top-5 TEs. This summer, each of the ADP top-8 TEs are 26 or younger. Each either has been elite already or is positioned to achieve elite status. Each has plenty of green flags, and each also has at least one glaring yellow flag. let's take a closer look at what might keep them from becoming the next Kelce, at least in 2026. This is not a doom-and-gloom post. It's simply highlighting a TE youth movement that doesn't yet have a clear-cut, long-term #1, and which won't automatically find this year.
Brock Bowers (TE1 ADP) is coming off an injury-plagued season where he missed five games. He missed two other contests in his final college season at Georgia. His quarterbacks will be some combination of 38-year-old ultra-post-prime Kirk Cousins and #1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza. Bowers should be fine. If he isn't, it'll be because of continued injuries and/or poor QB play.
Trey McBride (TE2) obliterated the TE competition last year with 315.9 points. He was also #3 in NFL targets (169), behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. McBride "benefited" from Marvin Harrison Jr. missing five games and barely playing in a sixth, as well as operating in an offense with virtually no running game. (Arizona was last in the league in carries and second-to-last in rushing yards). Add to that the fact that McBride had 33 red-zone targets -- 10 more than the next-closest TE -- and it should be clear why his 2025 breakout isn't easily replicable.
Colston Loveland (TE3) had three 20+ point performances as a rookie last year. His 29.8-point outburst in Week 9 occurred with Luther Burden sidelined and Rome Odunze catching zero passes on three targets. In Loveland's other big outputs in weeks 17 and 18, Odunze was sidelined and DJ Moore had a combined 2-18-0 receiving line. The young tight end has a bright future. But he has yet to prove he can be a weekly fantasy starter with Odunze and Burden on the field.
Tyler Warren (TE4) faded down the stretch last year with Daniel Jones sidelined. No surprise there. But Jones remains an above-average injury risk, and the Colts' backup (Anthony Richardson) realistically cannot help elevate Warren. It also doesn't help that Indy's receiving corps remains crowded after the team signed Keenan Allen. Warren was #3 in TE targets and doesn't have a lot of room to increase that target share.
Harold Fannin Jr. (TE5) broke through as a 2025 rookie in part because of talent, and in part because aside from Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland's top wideouts were Cedric Tillman, Isaiah Bond, and Jamari Thrash. With highly touted rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston on board, and with a potentially bottom-tier QB situation, Fannin is no long assured of 100+ targets or 6+ TDs.
While recovering from a torn ACL, Tucker Kraft (TE6) has been viewed as a weekly fantasy starter due to an impressive half season in 2025, when he averaged 14.7 points per game. His six TDs on 44 targets are not easily replicable. In his 24.4-point performance in Week 2, Christian Watson was out, Jayden Reed had zero targets on five snaps, and Matthew Golden had zero catches on two looks. Kraft's 33.3-point blow-up in Week 8 was Watson's first game of the season, Reed and Dontayvion Wicks were out, and Golden had three catches for four yards. Kraft did his best work when most of his fellow receivers did their worst.
As discussed last year, Kyle Pitts (TE7) has dominated since college when serving as the alpha receiver. But when the alpha WR has been healthy, Pitts frequently has taken a backseat. The still-young tight end averaged 19.0 fantasy points in the five games Drake London missed last season and only 9.6 in his other 12 games. What happened last year has occurred to varying degrees since his days at Florida, which is why something needs to change for him to reach the next level.
Finally, Sam LaPorta (TE8) has the misfortunate of being a relatively distant secondary offensive option, playing far behind an elite RB and an elite WR. If Jameson Williams is truly ascending, then it could be tough for LaPorta to exceed 90 targets, which would make him little more than a fringe weekly fantasy starter.
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