Two FF4W podcast episodes this summer help set up what I'm about to walk through. One episode about three months ago focused on why I was fading De'Von Achane in my fantasy rankings. It had almost nothing to do with injury risks. Instead, it focused on three realities that the fantasy market was ignoring.
The first was the fact that after three years as one of Miami's offensive focal points, this year he would serve as *the* offensive focal point. The open spaces he found with Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle on the field would shrink. I believed that defenses would lock in more on Achane, putting the pressure on Malik Willis and his inexperienced and/or underwhelming receivers to beat them.
And that's what happened. Before becoming this season's first consensus first-round fantasy pick to get knocked out for the year, Achane was averaging anemic career-lows in rushing-yards-after-first-contact (1.3), broken-tackle rate (1 in 41 touches), and yards-after-the-catch (4.9). His RB6 / overall-11 preseason ADP was ridiculous because it assumed that this year would be just like last year. But with Miami's personnel changes, it couldn't be.
The other two realities concerned reduced scoring opportunities in a lower-tier offense, and also the likelihood that Miami would "play it safe" with one of their franchise cornerstones; if Achane had a day-to-day injury, there wouldn't be a reason for a basement-level team to rush him back. I was pretty blunt that the Dolphins made a huge mistake signing him instead of embracing their rebuild and selling high to a team desperate for a bell cow.
So even if he hadn't torn his ACL, Achane was on track to becoming a fantasy bust. I steered clear of Quinshon Judkins and Tony Pollard for similar reasons. Except with Judkins and Pollard, we'd already seen them play in bad offenses last season. The fantasy market recognized their potential in a similarly questionable offense this year. But somehow the market believed Achane would be as good as ever. It made no sense.
The second episode I'm highlighting was exactly a month ago, the day before Josh Jacobs was added to the Commissioner's Exempt List. MarShawn Lloyd had become one of the trendiest RB draft picks. His skyrocketing value seemed bizarre. It was a misplaced "next-man-up" way of thinking. Jacobs is out for a while? Bring on Lloyd . . .
For context, in mid-August Lloyd's overall-ADP was 235. When I recorded the podcast, his ADP had jumped to 149. On the eve of Week 1, it was 86. Many managers were convinced that he could help them win their weeks.
Due to injuries, and excluding preseason games, Lloyd had only seven touches since November 2023. Before that, he was a lightly used running back. He seemed like a longshot to fill Jacobs' shoes, or even to operate as a middling workhorse. Essentially, the market's excitement about Lloyd exceeded his realistic range of outcomes.
These two episodes connect to what I want to share today. As of around midnight last night, Ollie Gordon was the most-added player on Yahoo! Sports, and I can safely assume that he was also the most-added on other major fantasy sites. Despite being rostered in only 5% of leagues, he was now the top waiver target, and it wasn't even close. He had about 50% more adds than the #2-most-added player, Braelon Allen. Gordon had more than double the adds compared to the #3-most-added player, teammate Jaylen Wright.
I get it, and I don't. RB-needy managers are looking for volume. Gordon has a shot at 16+ touches in Week 4. That's a plus.
And yet last year as a sixth-round rookie, Gordon averaged only 2.8 yards per carry in a more productive Miami offense. This year he's at 2.4. His average rushing-yards-after-first-contact is 0.2. What's more likely: that he outplays Achane and consistently delivers double-digit points on 16+ touches, or that he ends up with 35 rushing yards and two catches for seven yards?
And as long as Wright is healthy (we'll see if he returns this week), there's almost no way that Gordon would get more than 10 touches. Wright has run better (though not great) since getting drafted in the fourth round in 2024. While most of the fantasy attention is shining on Gordon, I would bet that a healthy Wright has a leg up on the depth chart.
Regardless, how do we know that this will be a Gordon-Wright battle? After what we've seen from both of them, a third option could emerge. Jarquez Hunter and Carlos Washington Jr. are on the practice squad. The Dolphins shipped Tutu Atwell to the Rams a month ago to get Hunter, a 2025 fourth rounder with college bell cow experience.
This summer it seemed clear that Achane and MarShawn Lloyd were overvalued, and for very different reasons. Achane likely couldn't match his previous years' productivity in a diminished offense, and Lloyd had no experience as a workhorse, or anything close to it.
That's why I believe managers targeting Gordon and/or Wright are making both mistakes: (1) believing that either backup RB can succeed in an even worse Miami offense, and (2) trusting that either one will be the workhorse. If you're desperate enough, this might seem like your only option. And if Wright misses another game, maybe Gordon can get enough work this coming weekend to secure Top 30-35 production. But as with Achane and Lloyd, the hype doesn't match their true potential.
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