When something happens again and again, it's often predictable enough to bank on. And when we encounter an outlier, it's important to understand why.
For each of the past 25 seasons, two teams on average have not produced a top-40 fantasy RB. More precisely, it's "2.0" teams. In the past 10 years, it's 1.9. In other words, we can safely assume that about two teams each summer won't have a top-40 RB.
Two months ago, I discussed something similar with WRs, where an average of about five teams don't have any players finishing in the top 40. It's not as big of a deal for wideouts, because (for example) last year's WR40 had roughly 20% more points than the RB40. In other words, typically a WR40 offers more flex streamability than an RB40.
Back to RBs: through Week 3, there are two teams that don't have a top-40 running back. You might already know who they are. One is the Packers, and the other is the Seahawks. The former is a mess with Josh Jacobs still not allowed to play, and the latter is a mess because no one has seized the #1 job.
What I find really interesting is how many teams might not field a top-40 RB by the end of this season. This matters, because many of us are making important waiver decisions today. Yesterday I focused on Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright. It's quite possible that Miami won't have a top-40 RB this year -- that Gordon and Wright (and maybe a third option) will cancel each other out.
Top-40 is a good indicator of fantasy stability. If all 32 teams have one, it means we have more predictable producers each week. If only, say, 26 teams have one, it means we're reacting more to shifting news -- whether because of injuries or demotions or other depth-chart-shifting situations.
Digging deeper, suppose Jaylen Wright ends up as the RB40. That would approximately equate to 8-to-9 fantasy points per week for 14 games. Or if he's the RB30, it might be closer to 11 points per game. I think most managers would be pretty happy with that, all things considered. But if we knew right now that the Dolphins wouldn't have any top-40 RBs, how important would it be to add Wright or Gordon?
Travis Etienne's struggles and injury raise question about how productive he'll be the rest of the way. Alvin Kamara's age and Kendre Miller's frequent struggles and injuries all make the Saints a riskier-than-ever bet to produce a top-40 RB. The same goes for the Broncos, whose top running back (RJ Harvey) is currently the RB36. Once Jonah Coleman returns, it could be difficult for either of them or JK Dobbins to secure somewhat consistent streaming value.
The Commanders' and Texans' backfields got messier yesterday when they signed Austin Ekeler and Dare Ogunbowale, respectively. Even with five touches a game, Ekeler could wreak havoc on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's and Rachaad White's ceilings. And for Houston, the painfully overvalued David Montgomery has been exposed, and Woody Marks has not stepped up. Whether or not Ogunbowale gets more than a couple touches a game, their backfield looks broken.
That's seven teams whose RB corps have no reliably productive #1. Maybe four or five teams end up sneaking someone into the top 40; they usually do. Regardless, will that make them streamable most weeks? Or even *some* weeks?
One stat that ties it all together: the RB40 in 2021 (Myles Gaskin) averaged 10.2 points per game. That mark for RB40's has dopped each year. In 2025, it was only 8.6. This year through Week 3, it's 6.5.
It's still early, but this season is shaping up to be the most difficult in 25 years when it comes to reliable RB scoring.
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