All of last summer's top-10 RBs (based on ADP) finished the season in the top 14. That hadn't happened since pre-2012 (my "ADP vs. Scoring" spreadsheet only goes back to 2012). But the interesting thing is that it wasn't just about their dominance. It was also about their unprecedented durability.
From 2012 to 2024, the preseason top-10 ADP running backs missed 19.2% of their games. That's an average of 3+ missed games per player. Of course, some missed a lot more and other missed none. Regardless, the seemingly high average mattered to managers hoping for season-long greatness.
But last year was completely different. The preseason top 10 missed only four total games -- 2.4%. In [my] recorded history, that's never happened. Not even close. If you drafted RB-RB last year, you had a good shot at meeting or exceeding expectations.
The fantasy market is reacting to this . . . or maybe overreacting. The current top-10 RBs based on ADP are all in the overall top 16. In 12-team leagues, on average those 10 are coming off the board by early in the second round. This is a shift from previous years. For example, in 2025 the top-10 RBs based on ADP were in the top 22. The year before: the top 19. The year before that: the top 28.
The top six RB scorers last season also happen to be the six highest-ranked RBs based on ADP. Five of them played all 17 games; the sixth (De'Von Achane) missed only one. This is an unusual "run it back" scenario, where managers are betting that the guys who played great and stayed healthy in 2025 will play great and stay healthy in 2026.
Digging deeper, preseason top-10 RBs from 2012 to 2024 averaged 223 fantasy points. Last year's top 10 averaged 312 points. Even if we remove Christian McCaffrey's recent 417-point effort, last year's average would have been 300. And even if we chopped off a game for everyone (simulating a 16-game schedule), it would come to 294 points. The previous high was 270.
A lot had to go right for last year's preseason top-10 RBs to collectively do as well as they did. The market is behaving as if it's replicable. Maybe it is. But historically, top-5 ADP WRs are more likely than top-5 ADP RBs to finish in the top 5 at their position, and top-10 ADP WRs are more likely than top-10 ADP RBs to finish in the top 10 at their position.
The market is putting more weight on 2025. I'm putting more weight on 2012-2024.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 211: "Josh Downs and Alec Pierce" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html