Yesterday's post focused on players with 201-250 overall ADPs who have great shots at netting fantasy managers streamable or even startable production. Let's go even deeper, scouring players outside the top 250 to see if anyone is worth drafting. I recognize using a bench spot on someone with (for example) a 400 ADP might seem ridiculous. But some of these seemingly longshot talents are not actually longshots. It's simply that the fantasy market hasn't caught up to their true potential.
So to be clear, we're not investing in (again, for example) the 400th-best player. We're investing in someone who we believe might be the 200th-best, but whose ADP appears to be flat-out wrong.
To kick things off, Jaylen Wright (overall-258 / RB69 ADP) is one of the better handcuffs to roster. The incredible De'Von Achane is coming off a 305-touch season. His relatively small size is one reason why he fell to the third round in the 2023 draft. I think it's reasonable to bet on his handcuff, especially on a team that's going nowhere in 2026. The Dolphins re-upped with Achane this offseason. It would make sense for the team to give Wright more run when this team is out of playoff contention, if not sooner.
Jake Tonges (266 / TE32) is one of only two backup tight ends I've tagged as big bargains, and for similar reasons that I've been pushing De'Zhaun Stribling all summer. George Kittle is not yet healthy, turns 33 in October, and missed multiple games in six of the last seven seasons. In the six contests he missed last year, Tonges averaged 12.3 points. Only five TEs averaged more. There is a good chance that Tonges will start multiple games, giving managers strong weekly double-digit potential.
Ted Hurst III (283 / WR94) didn't have a good fantasy outlook when the Bucs drafted him in the third round. He would almost surely play behind Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan. But injuries to Egbuka and McMillan, as well as Godwin's advancing age and injury history, give Hurst a slight opening to eventually serve as a top-2 WR in this offense.
I hesitate to push Chris Bell (303 / WR100), because the Dolphins' wide receiver corps is chaos personified. Three rookies, two journeymen, and one late-round holdover will catch passes thrown by a 27-year-old with six career starts. Who knows when Bell will be ready to take the field after tearing his ACL. And who knows how long it will take him to be even close to 100% (next season at the earliest, realistically). But I'm not sold on any other Miami wideout. The benefit of drafting Bell and (presumably) stashing him on IR is that he has the skillset to eventually lead this group. So managers would be banking on relevance by the time they reach the fantasy playoffs.
Luke Musgrave (366 / TE296) is ranked right by the retired Kadarius Toney, which should remind us that since ADPs are based on human decision making, sometimes we humans make mistakes. Musgrave is a 25-year-old former second-round pick who had the misfortune of getting hurt his rookie year -- which also happened to be Tucker Kraft's rookie year. Kraft took over the starting job and ran away with it. Now Kraft is recovering from a torn ACL that could limit him to start the season.
A 2022 Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine paper (yes, I researched this last night) quantified the impact of ACL tears on NFL players' post-injury games played and performance levels. It's reasonable to expect Kraft to miss some time this year, and even when he's on the field, he probably won't handle a full load. At a minimum, Musgrave offers spot-start streamability.
Three months ago I wrote a piece for another publication titled, "Why Raiders WR Malik Benson might be fantasy’s biggest rookie bargain." His positional ADP back then was WR128. Now it's WR174 (and overall-539). Yet the sixth-round rookie is as close as ever to winning a starting job. His ADP decline is an oversight, not a reflection of his true value. I've been hyping Benson because the Raiders' starting wideouts were Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech. Next to Miami's, this is arguably the weakest WR corps. My point has been that Benson has as good a shot as any Raider to lead this group in targets.
Finally, the Jordyn Tyson injury news is both significant and not unexpected. I'll probably do a deep dive on a podcast later this week. For now, at least three guys will push for the Saints' #2 WR job while Tyson is sidelined: Devaughn Vele, rookie Barion Brown, and rookie Bryce Lance. Of these three, Lance has the worst ADP: overall-580 / WR186. He sits behind Jets third-string tight end Jeremy Ruckert and Panthers rookie Chris Brazzell II -- who's out for the season. That's how off-the-radar Lance is.
An injury kept him out of their first preseason game, but it's reportedly minor. Unless this team signs an instant-impact free agent (Keenan Allen or bust?), I believe Lance has the best shot at fantasy relevance among New Orleans' secondary wideouts. He'll be one of the players I'm most closely watching this week.
---