Two quick things before jumping into today’s topic. First, as many of you know, the FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League is a free league for dedicated fantasy footballers. Last year, Scott Slavick defeated 150+ competitors to win championship. If a few more people want to join, I’ll have enough to create another division. Message me here or e-mail me at fantasyfootballforwinners@gmail if you have questions or want in.
Second, yesterday the official FF4W website was (temporarily?) taken down. Still trying to understand why. The platform I’ve use these past 10+ years, Blogger, locked it without warning due to alleged “community guideline violations.” All of the content here is copied over each day onto the official website, with additional links to my research and podcast. There’s never been cursing, belittling, etc. I don’t even allow comments on the website. But something triggered a review. Maybe my warning about “risky RBs” was misinterpreted as “risqué sleeves.”
If they restore it, all good. If not, then maybe I’ll launch a Substack or something similar that can house all searchable content -- past posts, research, etc. -- on one website. Relatively speaking, not a big deal, and I also wanted to clarify it in case you went to the page and wondered what the heck happened.
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Each summer, I half-heartedly commit to waiting on quarterbacks and then snagging a couple of cheap ones at the end of my draft. It rarely works out. Somewhere in the early or middle rounds, someone with elite or near-elite upside “falls in my lap,” and I can’t pass it up.
Hopefully this summer will be different. As with every preseason, there are a lot of non-top-14 QBs with realistic top-8 potential. Last year, four of the top five QB scorers had ADPs outside the top 14: Caleb Williams (QB15 ADP), Drake Maye (QB16), Trevor Lawrence (QB20), and Matthew Stafford (QB23). The year before, Jared Goff (QB15 ADP), Baker Mayfield (QB21), and Bo Nix (QB23) all finished in the top seven.
This summer seems unique, in that there are so many non-top-14 ADP quarterbacks who’ve shown they can be top-8 producers. It was hard for many managers to believe that 2025’s Williams and Maye would break through for the first time, or that 2024 rookie Nix could far exceed expectations. But when we see Nix (one of my favorite QB bargains this season) with a QB15 ADP, it doesn’t require mental gymnastics to envision him as a weekly starter. Goff is sitting at QB16. Mayfield (QB17) is only two years removed from a dominant campaign.
While I’m not high on Kyler Murray (QB18 ADP), he was a perennial weekly fantasy starter until last year. Tyler Shough (QB19) averaged a solid 17.1 fantasy points per start as a 2025 rookie. Jordan Love (QB20) and C.J. Stroud (QB22) were the overall QB5 and QB9, respectively, three years ago. Sam Darnold (QB23) was the QB9 two years ago.
Last season, Daniel Jones (QB24 ADP) averaged 18.8 points in his 12 full games. He was the overall QB9 three years before that. For context, 2022’s 24th-ranked preseason QB was Carson Wentz. In 2021, Mac Jones. In 2020, Drew Lock. In 2018, Mitch Trubisky. In 2016, Brock Osweiler. Sure, there was occasional fantasy relevance at that spot, just as there’s been occasional fantasy relevance elsewhere in the 20’s. But it’s not common. Jones is one of the better QB24 ADP options these past 15 years, just as Darnold is one of the better QB23 ADP options, and so on. It’s a deep fantasy group.
I left out two people. The first is Patrick Mahomes, who doesn’t belong on this list because he’s not outside the QB ADP top 14. But he happens to be the 14th-ranked preseason quarterback. One of the best QBs of the past decade -- and possibly one of the best of the past several decades -- is still somehow only 30 years old and is on track to start Week 1. Yet concerns about his knee injury have pushed this #1-upside QB two spots behind Matthew Stafford, who will turn 39 before the next Super Bowl.
The other guy I left out is Jacoby Brissett. In Superflex and Best Ball, I’d reach for him several rounds early. I don’t understand the logic behind his QB28 ADP. Sure, maybe the Cardinals will bail on him midseason and turn to rookie Carson Beck. But Brissett averaged 18.9 fantasy points in 12 starts last year despite missing Marvin Harrison Jr. for nearly half those games, and despite operating largely with third- and fourth-string RBs.
Only six quarterbacks averaged more than 18.9 points per game last season. Brissett has experienced a “been there, done that” campaign, and he’s running it back with an even more talented collection of playmakers. But the market has no room for him in the top 27.
This is why I hope I can stick to this plan: let the first 10-to-12 quarterbacks fly off the board in my 14-team league. Then target two non-top-14 QBs (or maybe include Mahomes in that list) for the equivalent of pennies.
If you’re also planning to scoop up one or two quarterbacks late, let’s hear who your top target is.