Fantasy-wise, yesterday's most impactful performance might have been rookie Ty Simpson's. In his professional debut, the #13 overall pick played about as well as anyone could have expected. Here's why it matters:
Starting quarterbacks and running backs are safer fantasy draft picks if they have a clear-cut and capable backup. On my podcast a couple days ago, I discussed how Chase Brown's value *should* be tied, in part, to the fact that nearly 31-year-old Samaje Perine is his presumed backup, with Tahj Brooks and maybe someone else mixing in if needed. Perine hasn't had more than 95 carries since 2017. He would be a questionable streamer at best if Brown were sidelined.
Compare Brown with Ashton Jeanty, whose handcuff presumably will be rookie Mike Washington Jr. The #3 and #4 RBs probably will be Dylan Laube (nine career rushing yards on eight carries) and rookie UDFA Roman Hemby. Today's is Hemby's 24th birthday. He's older than both Jeanty and Washington. A lot would need to happen for him or Laube to make noise.
So if I drafted Brown and Jeanty, I'd want to target their handcuffs. With Jeanty, that's looking pretty easy at the moment. If Jeanty got hurt, I'd at least have a streamable-or-better Washington to take his place. But if Brown got hurt, I'd arguably be in a tough situation with Perine.
With quarterbacks, the stakes are even higher. Imagine last year if Cincinnati hadn't signed Joe Flacco after Joe Burrow was knocked out -- if instead they'd continued to roll the dice with Jake Browning. With Browning under center, Ja'Marr Chase averaged 15.1 points, while Tee Higgins netted 6.6. Even Chase Brown struggled with 9.3.
But when the Bengals upgraded at "backup" QB by installing Flacco as the temporary starter, Chase averaged 21.5 points, Higgins 16.8, and Brown 16.6.
When we draft a fantasy QB, we should at least be aware of who their backup is, especially if the starter is an above-average injury risk. Burrow fits that description. So is Tua Tagovailoa. And despite an incredible 2025 campaign, so is 38-year-old Matthew Stafford, who's played in every game only twice in the past seven seasons.
A lot of players -- and by extension, a lot of fantasy managers -- need Stafford to stay healthy. Because in recent years, a Stafford injury would have led to Jimmy Garoppolo taking over. Although Garoppolo has been a decent backup in recent years, he wasn't capable of elevating Puka Nacua and Davante Adams the way Stafford did. If you rostered Nacua and/or Adams last year, you knew that if Stafford got hurt, neither of those receivers would benefit. The running game might suffer because of shorter drives and fewer scoring opportunities.
At this year's draft, the Rams made a decision that some believed was bold, surprising, etc. They used a first-round pick on Simpson a few months after their starting quarterback led the league in passing yards and passing scores. Stafford isn't stepping aside. Simpson will sit on the bench and wait his turn. the Rams could have drafted an NFL-ready wideout or defensive player. Instead, they landed someone they hope will be their future franchise QB.
For re-draft managers, this might seem irrelevant. But it actually matters. if Simpson is the real deal -- if he's developing into an NFL-ready quarterback capable of elevating the Rams' stacked offense -- then drafting Stafford becomes a safer move. Suddenly Nacua and Adams aren't one Stafford injury away from being questionably startable or even questionably streamable. The backfield isn't one Stafford injury away from diminished scoring opportunities.
In the past five seasons, preseason ADP top-14 QBs have averaged a little over three missed games, or 18.1% of their team's contests. Some players' fantasy production shifts significantly when a starting QB gets hurt. Other players' production doesn't. Often, the difference comes down to which teams have the best backups.
The next two weeks, we'll see if Simpson can give managers the confidence of knowing that regardless of whether Stafford plays in every game, the other core offensive playmakers should be just fine.
---