Thought about writing about Ashton Jeanty this morning, but as of late last night, we didn't know the severity of the injury. Then a little after midnight Eastern time (while wrapping up this column), there was a credible report that it might "only" be a sprained ankle. And regardless, it's no mystery who would be the #1 if Jeanty were forced to miss time, and there's no confusion about how managers should adjust. So building off of research outlined in episode 177 (July 1), on today's podcast I discuss how Jeanty's injury should remind us that the essentially unprecedented durability of last preseason's top-10 RBs might have given the fantasy market a false sense of security about this summer's top 10. As always, you can find the link below.
Today on this page, I want to zoom in on how we can use teams' shifting ADPs to identify where there are bargains and busts.
When Washington signed Stefon Diggs, his ADP was WR56. Terry McLaurin's was WR24. A few days later, I did a podcast episode on the two of them, because I was fascinated by what would happen to their ADPs. I already had pegged McLaurin as a strong bust candidate, and the Diggs signing led me to push McLaurin down even more while bumping Diggs to WR42.
In that episode, I shared that Diggs' ADP had ticked upward to WR53. Interestingly, McLaurin was still at WR24. I encouraged listeners to check their ADPs again in two weeks, because that would tell us whether the market was behaving rationally.
Today is two weeks later, and Diggs' ADP is now WR41, while McLaurin . . . is still at WR24.
At first, this didn't make sense to me. But digging deeper, we can see how Antonio Williams was at WR68 a few weeks before Diggs joined the team, and now the rookie has dropped to WR81. Luke McCaffrey has held pretty steady, while Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown have plummeted. So Diggs' rise has come at the expense of Williams and at least a couple of tertiary options. There's an equilibrium to this. Although I still strongly believe McLaurin is overvalued, the market is acting pretty rationally in how it's reorganized the team's WR ADPs.
This isn't always the case, because the fantasy market is imperfect -- not in terms of getting things "right" (because no one is perfect), but because it's unable to see the big picture.
Here's an example: 10 days ago, Alec Pierce's ADP was WR36 and teammate Josh Downs's was WR45. There was growing concern that Pierce's recovery from offseason surgery was not going smoothly, and that he was at risk of missing the start of the season. The ADP for free agent Keenan Allen was WR82. Three days later, Indy signed Allen, and the 34-year-old's ADP one week after that is WR62 (coincidentally, right where I placed him last Monday).
But when I moved Allen up, I also moved Pierce down about 10 spots to WR44. This was a cause-and-effect situation. If Pierce didn't move, then I'd have to seriously consider giving Daniel Jones a bump. Shifting from two fantasy-relevant WRs to (potentially) three would have some kind of impact on Jones's numbers. Tyler Warren's health situation also was a factor, though I didn't want to overreact to the news right away.
The market has behaved somewhat oddly toward Colts' receivers these past 10 days. As mentioned, Allen popped 20 positional ADP spots. But Pierce has dipped only one spot to WR37, while Downs has edged up one spot to WR44. Warren is still the TE4. Meanwhile, Jones has gone from QB23 to QB22 . . . but based on overall ADP, he's gone from 179 to 178. Although he leapfrogged previous QB22 C.J. Stroud, who just lost his #2 wideout for the season, Jones is still pretty much where he was before Allen was signed.
That's also true for Pierce, Downs, and Warren. The only notable movement was Allen. A fully rational fantasy market would produce a counter-movement elsewhere -- such as Pierce dropping 10-15 spots or Jones jumping into the top 20, for example.
This flaw in the market is not something to be fixed. It *can't* be fixed. ADPs are the sum of thousands/millions of individual draft decisions. While ADPs help drive decision making, leagues don't have hive minds. Some managers continue to believe in Pierce and/or Downs. Some are all in on Warren. Allen is the trendy bargain in the group, as evidenced by his rising ADP.
So the fantasy market cannot see the big picture in its entirety. There will always be logic gaps. And when managers identify those gaps, we can better understand which players the market is overvaluing and undervaluing.
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