While recording today's podcast episode on Deshaun Watson, I thought about all of the Browns players I don't want to draft -- and I mean, "all" of the Browns players. And that raised a bigger question: who are all the players I don't want to draft throughout the league?
Last week I walked through "undraftable" players I'm targeting as major bargains. Today let's flip it, focusing on all of the "draftable" players I will not draft, either because their ADPs are entirely unrealistic, or because I don't see how they can help me win a title. Since last week's "undraftable" group consisted of guys outside the top 200, today's players are all inside the top 200.
Starting at the end: Calvin Ridley (overall-190 / WR64 ADP). We still remember the impressive start of his career, including his Year 3 breakout. Then in years 4-7, he took a step back despite operating as the #1 wideout on three teams. Poor QB play didn't help. Last year he did very little before getting hurt. Now he's Tennessee's #3 WR, though it's likely that Chimere Dike or Elic Ayomanor will pass him eventually. There is no compelling reason for managers -- even deep leaguers -- to stash the 31-year-old Ridley on their bench.
Keaton Mitchell (overall-159 / RB51) is talented, frequently injured, and limited in the passing game. He's coming off the board ahead of guys like Jonah Coleman, Tank Bigsby, Ja'Kobi Lane, and Braelon Allen. In brief spurts, Mitchell can be an occasional desperation streamer. Wonderful. But he's not a lottery ticket. His ceiling is capped. I'm not drafting running backs who get me 5-to-8 points.
JK Dobbins (overall-87 / RB33) has an extensive injury history. I don't see how he reclaims a meaningful role with both RJ Harvey and rookie Jonah Coleman pushing for touches. At best, Dobbins will get about 12 touches per game. At worst, he'll become Denver's #3 RB. Somewhere in between is realistic, and that's not worth a roughly eighth-round pick.
I've been warning against David Montgomery (overall-50 / RB23) since June, both here and on the podcast, while pushing Woody Marks as a big bargain. In 12-team leagues, Montgomery is a fifth-round pick, while Marks (overall-136) is a 12th-round pick. It's absurd.
Quinshon Judkins (overall-46 / RB21) plays in one of the league's least-effective offenses. Deshaun Watson's high turnover rate won't help. He's a rare top-24 bell cow with (I strongly believe) virtually no shot at cracking the top 12.
Derrick Henry (overall-16 / RB10) is signed for two more seasons, at which point he'll be 34 years old. Despite his resurgence since relocating to Baltimore, his targets per game have dropped each year since 2021. His 2025 broken-tackle rate was the worst of his career. He was last year's fantasy RB8, thanks in part to 16 rushing scores. He's being priced at his ultimate ceiling, which is too high even for a legend like Henry.
Finally, . . . Christian McCaffrey (overall-5 / RB3). I've already written and talked about him enough. There's no way he's falling outside the first round, and there's no way I'm taking him that early.
If you have thoughts on any of these guys, or if you have different players on your "all-avoid" team, let's hear it; leave a comment below.
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