In Saturday's post, I made a statement based on anecdotal evidence. It was in reference to the Ravens' best and second-best fantasy WRs last season: Zay Flowers (WR7) and DeAndre Hopkins (WR93) -- "an unusually huge gap between a team's #1 and #2 fantasy wideouts."
But to be actionable, it needed to be more than anecdotal. So I did a new batch of research over the weekend to quantify the degree to which WR7-to-WR93 really is a "huge gap" . . . or if I was completely off the mark.
The following data set consists of each team's #1 WR and #2 WR fantasy scorers in each of the past 20 seasons (2006 to 2025). That's 1,280 data points, which should give us a pretty good understanding of how #2 WRs perform compared to #1 WRs. To be clear, this isn't based on preseason rankings. This is about which player on a particular team ends the season with the most WR points on that team, and which one finishes with the second-most WR points. So for this research, a preseason #1 who gets hurt and finishes with the second-most WR points is defined as that team's "#2 WR."
First, big picture: teams' #1 WRs during this span finished on average as the WR23. The actual number is 22.7. So the average #1 WR is usually a weekly starter in common 12-team leagues. For context, last year's WR22 and WR23 were CeeDee Lamb and Emeka Egbuka, respectively. The former was the WR12 in points per game in 14 contests. The latter played all 17 games, finishing as the WR35 in points per contest. Barring *serious* injuries or demotions, teams' #1 WRs generally deliver (with notable exceptions) little worse than weekly streamability. When a preseason #3 WR like Egbuka rises to the top, it might be due to injuries to one or two starters (as was the case last season).
Teams' #2 WRs finished on average as the WR49 during this 20-year stretch -- or specifically, 49.4. Last season's WR49 and WR50 were Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kayshon Bouttle, respectively. Harrison of course was his team's preseason WR1, while Boutte was his team's preseason WR4. This reflects how hard it is to predict which player will be a particular team's #2 WR by the end of the year. Injuries and an ascending Michael Wilson pushed MHJ down, while Boutte led all top-100 fantasy wideouts with 2.70 points per look. For context, the other 99 WRs averaged only 1.77 points per look. Boutte needed almost flawlessly efficient execution to become a fringe streamer.
53% of the time, a team's second-best fantasy wideout finished in the top 50. That's really significant in the context of Saturday's comment. If there's evidence that roughly 17 of this year's teams might field at least two top-50 fantasy WRs, and since the Ravens' second-best WR ADP is outside the top 80, then all things being equal, we might say there's a better-than-50/50 chance that Baltimore will produce two top-50 scorers, and that at least one of their "undraftable" wideouts (Rashod Bateman, Devontez Walker, Ja'Kobi Lane, or Elijah Sarratt, for example) is a huge bargain.
Now, "all things being equal" doesn't necessarily apply to teams like the Ravens, which historically is among the least pass-friendly. In the seven seasons when Lamar Jackson has started 12+ games, Baltimore's #2 WR has finished, on average, as the WR75. But a new coaching staff -- including a more pass-friendly offensive coordinator -- might change this. Either way, with Zay Flowers' ADP significantly below his 2025 numbers, there's evidence that at least one (and I think at least two) Baltimore WRs are undervalued.
(Incidentally, a league-high 90% of the Browns' #2 WRs these past 20 years have finished outside the top 50. Intuitively, this makes sense, and it's interesting that the data so clearly backs it up. And the Bengals lead the league with 80% of their #2 WRs finishing in the top 50 . . . also not surprising given their deep WR talent over the years.)
The average ranking gap between teams' #1 and #2 WR fantasy scorers is 26.7. The Ravens happen to be right around this average, with a 26.0 gap between their #1 and #2 WRs these past 20 years. As suggested on Saturday (and as proven here), last season's 86-spot spread between Flowers (WR7) and Hopkins (WR93) was an anomaly. In the other six seasons during the Jackson era (excluding his partial rookie campaign), Baltimore's average gap was 29.3. Yet the current ADP gap between the first- and second-ranked WRs is greater than 60.
These numbers reinforce the view that the fantasy market is not accurately assessing Baltimore's WR ADPs. It suggests somewhat of a repeat of last year's unusually large spread. How "unusually large" was it? Across these past 20 years, the Ravens' 86-spot spread in 2025 was the fifth-highest in the NFL. A lot of unexpected things had to happen to make it an anomaly. We should expect a return to the norm, or at least something close to it.
What else can we do with this research? I examined the two best WR ADPs for each team to see if there were unusually high gaps. The Falcons' gap is 70: Drake London (WR7), followed by Zachariah Branch (WR77). Since Atlanta drafted Branch a couple months, I've been really high on him -- maybe too high, but given the lack of solid secondary options on that team (outside of London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts), there's room for a #4 option to step up.
Meanwhile, Malik Nabers (WR13) is 60 spots ahead of his next-highest-ranked teammate, Darnell Mooney (WR73), while rookie Malachi Fields is at WR78. I've preferred Fields these past two months. Either way, one of these secondary receivers should be a solid bargain. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR3) is more than 50 spots ahead of Rashid Shaheed (WR55). That sizable gap is worth tracking; I actually bumped Shaheed up to "bargain" status.
As always, the research doesn't tell us what to do. But it tells us what's already happened, and when "what's happened" is pretty consistent through the years, then the research becomes pretty actionable.
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