Barring something unforeseen, Stefon Diggs probably will end up being the most fantasy-relevant free agent signing this summer. Deebo Samuel should be fine in San Francisco, and Keenan Allen might still find a starting job. But Diggs is the most important domino to fall. Here's how I think it will play out in Washington. As always, jump in if you have anything to add -- including if you have a different take.
I've been down on Jayden Daniels in the belief that his QB5 ADP is more a reflection of his brilliant 2024 rookie campaign than his true midpoint. Pre-Diggs, this passing attack arguably was on track to be worse than what Daniels enjoyed two years ago, when a younger Terry McLaurin and still-capable Zach Ertz combined for 1,750 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
Add to that the risks of Daniels running less than he did two years ago, and we can see how QB5 scoring might require significantly more production through the air. That would be a big ask for a quarterback throwing to a nearly 31-year-old McLaurin, third-round rookie Antonio Williams, and a jumble of tertiary receivers who probably wouldn't start on at least 90% of the other teams.
Diggs gives Daniels something he had only briefly last year with McLaurin and Samuel. I moved Daniels up a little bit on my draft board, though not enough to change his fade status.
McLaurin takes a big hit. He's been Washington's unquestioned alpha since his 2019 rookie year. Before battling injuries last year, he was continually among the league leaders in targets. In June I highlighted him as a clear fade at his WR22 ADP. Now he's at WR24. We shouldn't be surprised if it drops a few more spots by next week, once the Diggs news recalibrates managers' draft decisions. Regardless, he's outside my top 30, so I'm guessing he'll remain a fade after the dust settles.
Antonio Williams takes an even bigger hit. I had him pegged as a bargain at his WR71 ADP and was monitoring him in camp. Now he's gone from draftable to undraftable, even if he earns the #3 role. The only upside (if we can call it that) is McLaurin's and Diggs' advancing ages and injury risks. It's reasonable to believe Williams *could* see more looks at some point. But I don't like drafting "just in case" receivers.
As for Diggs, his ADP right before signing was WR57. Last night I pushed him up to WR42, and I don't think the market will move him that high. There probably will be deference to the McLaurin as the #1. I think the separation should be much narrower. Diggs played at an exceptionally high level last season, catching a league best 83.3% of his targets and securing his lowest dropped-pass rate in eight years.
Drake Maye surely helped elevate him. But it's also fair to say that Diggs can still be a weekly fantasy streamer, especially in an offense with no strong #3 WR and a seemingly sub-par TE corps. It's a pretty ideal landing spot for Diggs and a great opportunity for bargain-hunting managers.
And one quick side note: Blogger restored my website yesterday. So below I've re-added the link to my research for those who want free access to one of the spreadsheets.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 213: "Buccaneers Offense: Too Many Options?" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
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