How do we identify player ADPs that don't make sense? The Ravens' passing attack might be a good case study.
Lamar Jackson (QB2 ADP) is expected to be elite, despite his injury-plagued 2025 campaign. The fantasy market is willing to overlook his diminishing carries per game. Or maybe the market is factoring in a potential drop in rushing attempts, possibly leading to more throws. Either way, he's priced as elite.
Barring an injury, his #1 target will remain Zay Flowers, who posted a stellar 86-1,211-5 receiving line last year on 118 targets. Remarkably, entering Week 14 he was averaging only 11.9 points per game and was on pace to finish just barely inside the top 20. Then he racked up 100.4 points in his final five contests. Even more remarkably, he did this despite Baltimore averaging only 21 pass attempts in these five games, and despite Tyler Huntley replacing Jackson for 1 1/2 of those games. He was the overall WR7. Baltimore's next-best fantasy WR (DeAndre Hopkins) finished 93rd -- an unusually huge gap between a team's #1 and #2 fantasy wideouts.
And yet, Flowers' ADP is "only" WR18. The market believes he'll regress, even though the market *also* believes Jackson will dominate. There are two main ways this might make sense: either the 29-year-old Jackson will be used as much as ever in the run game, or his secondary/tertiary receivers will step up, thereby capping Flowers' ceiling.
I think it's a stretch to believe Jackson -- whose carries per game have declined each year since 2019 -- will suddenly reverse this trend. So we might anticipate that at least one other receiver will step up in ways they didn't in 2025.
Except that's not what the market believes. Rookie Ja'Kobi Lane (WR81 ADP) has a ranking that's barely better than how this team's #2 WR performed last season. Former first-rounder Rashod Bateman (WR99 ADP) is somehow only 26 years old, and he's only two years removed from finishing as the WR40. He missed four games last year and averaged only 2.3 targets in his final 10 outings. Rookie Elijah Saratt (WR108 ADP) and Devontez Walker (WR110 ADP) are also in the running to operate as Jackson's second- or third-favorite receiver.
These four rankings assume no one will win the #2 job, or else no one will hold it for very long. Or it assumes that Mark Andrews -- last year's overall TE16 -- will return to greatness. But his ADP is TE14. The market isn't confident about him, either.
So we have an alpha receiver ranked well below his 2025 numbers, a bunch of secondary-tertiary wideouts who apparently cancel each other out, an aging tight end who's barely draftable despite no longer losing snaps to Isaiah Likely, . . . and a supposedly elite quarterback who's running less and less each season, and who's now helming what's expected to be a more pass-friendly offense.
We could propose unlikely scenarios to make this all fit together. Maybe Jackson will dump off more to 32-year-old Derrick Henry, even though Henry's targets per game and catches per game have steadily declined since 2021. Or maybe Jackson will dump off more to handcuff Justice Hill. But Hill's RB70 ADP suggests the backup will be a fantasy non-factor.
Or maybe (and this might be the most reasonable conclusion) the market is waiting to see if Baltimore signs a free agent who can immediately slot in as the #2 WR, thereby putting pressure on Flowers' upside while lowering the floors of Bateman & company. Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen come to mind; both led their respective teams in overall fantasy points last season. Except Diggs will turn 33 in November. Allen is 34. The next-best solution might be bringing back 34-year-old Hopkins, which isn't really a solution.
So if the Ravens sign Diggs or Allen, then the team's current QB/WR/TE ADPs would largely make sense. If they don't, then Jackson is overvalued and/or Flowers and at least one other WR are undervalued. Managers should be prepared to pounce depending on what happens these next four weeks.
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