In the summer of 2018, Le'Veon Bell's holdout should have been chaotic for the fantasy market. One of the most prolific fantasy scorers of the previous five years wanted a multi-year contract. The Steelers wouldn't budge. Most managers trusted that he'd return by Week 1 or soon after. His ADP entering the season was overall-2 / RB2. His backup James Conner -- a third-round pick from the year before -- was all the way back at overall-152 / RB55.
Bell never played another snap in Pittsburgh and was never the same again. Conner was that season's RB6 and maintained weekly fantasy startability each of the next six years.
The Packers' backfield situation this summer is similar in one important way and different in so many other ways. As with Pittsburgh eight years ago, the fantasy market has ignored the chaos. In mid-July, Josh Jacobs had an RB18 ADP, while backup Marshawn Lloyd's -- a third-round pick from two years ago -- was RB53. I dropped two podcast episodes this summer on Lloyd, trying to talk through the fantasy ramifications of the chaos and to walk through how managers might prepare for the possibility of a Jacobs suspension.
Strangely, Jacobs' ADP last night was *still* RB18, while Lloyd's had jumped to RB42. The fantasy market has gradually recognized Lloyd's value, yet still hadn't addressed Jacobs' shakier situation. In the coming days, Jacobs' value surely will drop, while Lloyd's probably will rise. This is an obvious difference between Bell and Jacobs: the former largely dictated if and when he would return, while the latter is at the mercy of his team, the league, and the courts.
I actually would have expected Jacobs' value to plummet, or at least dip significantly. The 2018 Steelers' backfield featured 26-year-old Bell coming off an RB2 campaign. Jacobs is 28 and coming off an RB13 campaign. Among active players, he's #5 in all-time in career RB touches and is entering his eighth season. He's averaged just under 4.0 yards per carry these past three years. Remove his massive touchdown totals, and one could argue that he's on the verge of post-prime.
With Bell, it would have been difficult to imagine that he was on the verge of post-prime. With Jacobs, it seems clearer, at least from my perspective. Yet the market has held firm that despite the mounting risks, Jacobs should still be drafted as a weekly fantasy starter. We'll see if this all changes in the coming days.
Then there are the backups. Conner was a college bell cow, averaging 17+ carries per game since his freshman year while also posting a 21-302-4 receiving line his senior year. He looked solid as a rookie, rushing 32 times for 144 yards (4.5 YPC). Conner was the complete package and was ready to take over.
This is entirely different than Green Bay's backfield. Lloyd had only 291 college carries. In his final season, he had double-digit carries only four times. Even if the Packers believe he's ready to be the bell cow if Jacobs is absent, would Lloyd actually *be* ready? Could he handle the same kind of workload that Jacobs has handled?
After the Packers drafted Lloyd in 2024, injuries have limited him to only six carries for 15 yards and one catch for three yards. That's his official tally dating back nearly three years, since right after his final college game on November 18, 2023. I can understand the appeal of Lloyd as a must-roster RB and possibly as a weekly streamer if Jacobs sits. But he's an above-average injury risk with a few preseason performances and seven regular-season touches under his NFL belt.
That raises the question of whether the Packers are finished beefing up their backfield. They've just acquired Kaleb Johnson, which on its own shouldn't shift managers' thinking on Lloyd. But guys like Austin Ekeler and Kareem Hunt are ready to be signed. They and several other post-prime RBs might still have enough juice to at least cap Lloyd's ceiling.
Bell/Conner was an either/or situation. Their backfield teammates' ADPs were RB108 (Jaylen Samuels) and RB91 (Steven Ridley). If Bell missed games, those drafting Conner would benefit. It was kind of that simple.
Jacobs/Lloyd is an either/or/maybe/who-knows situation. Lloyd is the "next man up" on the depth chart, at least for now. But that doesn't make him the next bell cow. A lot could change these next 10 days and beyond. It doesn't all hinge on Jacobs' status, although that's critically important. It hinges on a lot of factors that managers won't be able to answer for days, weeks, or even the next 2-3 months.
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