If this were the regular season, there would be a lot to unpack from last night's games. I also don't want to risk exaggerating the impact of what happened. In general, fantasy starters/streamers who had off games should be fine. And in general, seemingly undraftable players who came up big (like Chargers RB Amar Johnson, Cardinals WR Jalen Brooks, Steelers QB Drew Allar, etc.) should remain undraftable. Depth charts don't swing wildly on a few preseason touches.
But then there's the middle group: fringe draftable players / bench stashes. What these guys did matters, because their current ADPs put them on the cusp of relevance. Here are quick thoughts on three rookie performances:
First, De'Zhaun Stribling did actually what he needed to do to prove he's NFL ready. Once again, I've been pushing this guy heavily for two months. He was in an ideal landing spot surrounded by 30+ year-old playmakers and very little competition behind him. Stribling somehow has an overall-170 ADP. He entered last night at #140 in my rankings. The fantasy market will come around.
Mike Washington Jr.'s overall-235 ADP doesn't reflect his value, and last night he came through with a 53-yard run in his first professional outing. The fourth-round rookie will back up Ashton Jeanty. Washington entered last night #174 on my board. By next week, the fantasy market probably will push him into the top 200.
Finally, Fernando Mendoza (overall-215 ADP) made a strong case for replacing Kirk Cousins sooner than expected. The market started shifting even before last night, pushing Cousins down three QB spots in the past week, while the rookie has held steady. While he probably wouldn't be on my fantasy radar even if he were the Week 1 starter, deep leaguers (and of course superflexers) caught a glimpse of what he can do.
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For tonight's games, here are the rookies I'm closely tracking. As always, jump in with anyone you're keeping an eye on:
Falcons -- Third rounder Zachariah Branch has been one of my favorite rookie bargains since June, generally keeping him about 60 spots ahead of his overall ADP. He'll have opportunities to push past Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus at some point this season. His first big opportunity is tonight. Interestingly, Branch is the fourth WR Atlanta has drafted in the first 80 picks since 2005. The first three were Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley.
Broncos -- How will fourth rounder Jonah Coleman fit into a backfield "led" by J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey? Dobbins has been a huge bust on my draft board. Harvey and Coleman have been slight bargains. A strong showing today could push the rookie far ahead of his continually rising ADP, which currently sits at 188 overall.
Jets -- With Kenyon Sadiq sidelined, all / most / a few eyes will be on first rounder Omar Cooper, who's competing for a starting wideout job. His ADP is actually ahead of Adonai Mitchell's. The biggest question might be whether Geno Smith can support more than one WR per game, and that WR usually will be Garrett Wilson.
Buccaneers -- Third rounder Ted Hurst III is one of the trendiest fantasy rookies. With Jalen McMillan's return date still unknown, Hurst can make a great case for a Week 1 starting job, even if McMillan is back. And with the aging Chris Godwin increasingly battling injuries, there's a realistic pathway for Hurst to string together several or even many double-digits performances. Nothing is certain, but that uncertainty is creating challenges and opportunities for managers.
Commanders -- Antonio Williams is another third rounder who's stuck behind entrenched starters, at least for now. But Stefon Diggs will turn 33 in November, and Terry McLaurin will hit 31 in September. If Williams plays well enough to lock down the #3 WR job, he'll be an interesting deeper-league flyer.
Dolphins -- Miami's three drafted wide receivers are competing with Malik Washington and some journeymen. Some of you have acknowledged rolling the dice on at least one of the rookies. While I'm struggling to see how anyone finishes in the top 50, Caleb Douglas is #2 in ADP behind Washington. Douglas and Chris Bell could be this team's leading wideouts in 2027. With Bell still recovering, Douglas could make a case for #1 duties with an impressive preseason.
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