As the injuries keep piling up, sometimes we need to widen our circle of draft targets. Jayden Higgins' season ender has me looking closer at Jaylin Noel (more on that in today's podcast). With rookie Makai Lemon still sidelined, Dontayvion Wicks looks more interesting. And so on.
But for me, this widened circle isn't wide enough to include a few teams whose players are almost entirely off my radar. Not just off my radar, actually. They're guys I actively hope don't fall in my lap. On paper, these players are terrific. But they're on teams that aren't expected to score many points. If you take touchdowns out of the equation, many "great" fantasy options would be merely "good."
For example, last season the Rams led all teams with 65 offensive TDs. Davante Adams had 14 of them. His 60-789 receiving line in 14 games so solid, yet not remarkable. Ladd McConkey had an almost identical 66-789 receiving line. But McConkey played for a Chargers team that had a sub-par 36 offensive scores (eighth fewest in the league). He had only six of those touchdowns.
Adams finished as the overall WR9 in only 14 games. McConkey was the overall WR29 in 16 games. That's the fantasy power of touchdowns, and that's also the fantasy power of choosing players from elite vs. low-end offenses.
The three lowest-TD teams last year were the Raiders, Titans, and Jets. Collectively, they had only two guys finish as top-75 offensive fantasy scorers. Among the three highest-TD teams last season (Rams, Bills, and Patriots), *six* guys finished in the *top 30*.
This is basically how it works. 2024's lowest-TD teams were the Browns and (three-way tie) Giants, Patriots, and Raiders. These four teams had eight fantasy-relevant / streamable+ players: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy, Rhamondre Stevenson, Bowers, and Meyers. The four teams with the most offensive TDs (Lions, Bills, Ravens, and Buccaneers) combined for 21 fantasy-relevant / streamable+ players.
More specifically, those lowest-TD teams in 2024 had only four guys finish among the top-80 offensive fantasy scorers. The highest-TD teams had *eight* guys finish among the *top-30* offensive fantasy scorers. Again, the power of touchdowns.
Heading into 2026, there are several candidates for "fewest offensive TDs." The four that make me most nervous are (not surprisingly to most people) the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, and Panthers. Quinshon Judkins' overall-46 ADP makes me very nervous. Breece Hall (overall-31) is dealing with an injury, which makes Braelon Allen (overall-203) appealing as a low-ceiling streamer if Hall misses time. For Miami, I hope I don't draft De'Von Achane; this is the worst offense he's played in, and I'm concerned about defenses focusing more on him and forcing Malik Willis to beat them.
Within this group, I'm lukewarm on Tetairoa McMillan and Garrett Wilson. Their ADPs are overall-38 and -39, respectively. If you draft at the back turn (#'s 12 and 13) in a 12-team league, then you could potentially go RB-RB (Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley, for example), and then snag those two alpha receivers back-to-back in rounds 3 and 4. Managers should weigh whether McMillan's and Wilson's presumably high target share will compensate for what could be low-TD totals. Their ceilings seem capped.
That's a big issue with drafting players on low-TD teams: even if they're expected to see a lot of looks, or a lot of carries, or attempt more passes, their ceilings generally will pale in comparison with the ceilings of their counterparts on high-TD teams. For all of his perceived greatness (and sure, he's a very talented receiver), Wilson hasn't had more than 14.8 points per game in any of his four seasons. 10 wideouts had more last season. 20 had more in 2024. 19 had more in 2023. 16 had more in 2022. 19 had more in 2021 . . .
Wilson's low ceiling isn't his fault. It's largely because the Jets have been bottom-3 in offensive scores in three of his four seasons. He's probably doing as well as anyone can given the circumstances. But that doesn't mean we should draft him.
It really comes down to personal preference. In the early rounds, I'm continually going for high ceilings. I want players who -- when things break right -- can rack up buckets of points.
Three more stats to leave you with: 83 times last year, running backs exceeded 24 fantasy points. And all 83 times, they had at least one touchdown. Of the 63 occasions when a wide receiver hit 25+ points last year, they scored in 60 of them. Of the 63 occasions when a tight end had 18+ points last year, they scored in 60 of them.
The power of touchdowns. The risks of drafting players on low-TD teams.
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