There's been a lot of news this week that will shake up ADPs. Here are two with angles that I think are interesting, because they're not entirely clear.
In my podcast episode that dropped Monday morning ("Josh Downs and Alec Pierce Revisited"), I made the case for why Pierce's injury -- if more than a day-to-day thing -- could prompt the Colts to sign Keenan Allen or trade for a similar impact receiver. They had the salary cap space and enough realistic playoff aspirations to bolster a wideout corps that would be relatively decimated without Pierce.
I was rooting for Pierce to be fine, because acquiring someone like Allen would upend the values of both Pierce and Downs. I'd long pegged Downs as significantly undervalued, and his Monday morning WR45 ADP continued to seem ridiculously low. Essentially, a healthy Pierce would help maintain the status quo, handing me a terrific middle-round bargain (Downs).
About 15 hours later, the Colts signed Allen. My plans are crushed. Mostly.
Here's how I'm viewing this situation: Allen's arrival should put downward pressure on the fantasy values of Pierce and Downs. Pierce's ADP already has ticked down from 36 to 37, and I expect him to fall several more spots in the next week. Meanwhile, Downs somehow has climbed from 45 to 41, while Allen has popped these past 48 hours, shifting from WR82 to WR70.
If Pierce's early-season availability is threatened, Downs still would be an easy bargain. Allen at 34 years old is both capable and also an above-average injury risk. Despite playing all 17 games last year, he missed two in 2024, four in 2023, and seven in 2022. There are realistic scenarios where Pierce and/or Allen are sidelined for multiple games, giving Downs a decent shot at claiming the 1A receiver role, just as he did alongside Michael Pittman Jr. in 2024.
Keep tabs on how high Allen's ADP climbs. He was last year's WR40 in points per game and led all Chargers wideouts in total fantasy points. The market might give him the benefit of the doubt and push him into the top 55. I tend to think he'll top out at around 62 or 63 unless Pierce's outlook worsens.
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In Chicago, the backfield has been a sea of calm compared to most fantasy backfields. D'Andre Swift has 189+ points in each of his first six seasons. He's had 239+ carries (including the playoffs) in each of his past three seasons. At only 27 years old, he's an in-his-prime lead running back in a plus offense. Barring an injury, he'll be fine.
But Kyle Monangai's "week-to-week" (according to head coach Ben Johnson) injury has generated some chaos. The 2025 seventh-round pick is the unquestioned handcuff. Last year he thrived as a spot starter and as a frequent 1B option. The 113 retired seventh-round picks these past 30 years have averaged 85 career fantasy points. Monangai already has 146.7.
The 24-year-old notably had an RB34 ADP on Monday. Now it's RB35. It will probably drop to RB38 or 39 this next week. Managers who draft Swift will catch a break, because you might be able to wait an extra round before snagging Monangai.
If the backup isn't ready for Week 1, who would take his place? That's where things *might* get interesting. 2023 fourth rounder Roschon Johnson is playing in the final year of his rookie contract. Brittain Brown and Salvon Ahmed are depth pieces. If the team has no faith in Johnson (whose overall ADP is outside the top 500), then it sets up a scenario where Chicago signs a stop-gap handcuff until Monangai can re-take the field.
The Bears' decision could impact Monangai's rest-of-season value. Suppose Austin Ekeler or Kareem Hunt is signed. Or still-trucking 34-year-old Raheem Mostert. Would they automatically step aside whenever Monangai is healthy? Quite possibly, but not definitely. Monangai might seem entrenched as the #2. But each season we see entrenched #2's lose their depth-chart footing, sometimes because a teammate seizes on an opportunity to take their place.
If you've drafted Monangai, you want him to return soon *not only* so he can play Week 1, but also so he can restabilize this backfield and prevent Chicago from bringing in more help.
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