Ben Lapidot posted a comment yesterday, asking for thoughts on the top 5 RB handcuffs, and it brought me back to a column I posted two Sundays ago about how the best rankings aren't just lists; they're based on a lot of competing variables, including personal biases, fantasy strategies, and specific draft picks. That column offered a more macro view of "improved" rankings. Based on Ben's question, let's zoom in one example to show how complex this all is.
And before jumping in, yeah, I think this stuff is really complex. If it weren't, then we'd all win our leagues pretty much every year. Some people view complexity as a hindrance. I think it's a necessary first step on the path toward making things simpler and more actionable.
350+ names in a rankings spreadsheet looks simple enough. But it's not. It's the culmination of a complex set of probabilities and "what-if's."
As managers, our job (as I see it) is to understand the "why" behind each draft decision . . . before we make that decision. Before our draft even begins, we should understand what we think of each player. Rankings are a first step. We need to take them and refine them -- mold them to our biases and preferred strategies. Once these rankings reflect what we truly believe, the rest is pretty simple.
To better illustrate this idea with a specific example, let's look at Tank Bigsby. His current ADP is overall-168 / RB52. A week ago he was overall-168 / RB51, so he's held quite steady between weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason. He's currently wedged between Tank Dell (overall-167) and the Chargers DST (overall-169). Positionally, he's between Brian Robinson Jr. (RB51) and Jonah Coleman (RB53). Based on ADP, on average Bigsby is coming off the board in the 14th/15th rounds of 12-team leagues.
But here's the first hitch in that thinking: there are 20 TEs and 21 QBs ranked ahead of him, as well as seven kickers and nine DSTs. There are also some trendy players ranked behind him, like Jonah Coleman, Mike Washington Jr., and Ja'Kobi Lane. There's a chance that Bigsby's relatively quiet summer will eventually push him behind those three guys, and possibly others. ADP alone does not accurately reflect what's actually happening in our draft rooms, where he might be going a round or two earlier.
So based on ADP, Bigsby is a 14th or 15th rounder. Based on "actual drafting" based on ADP, he could be a 12th or 13th rounder. Same criteria, and in many cases a meaningful difference.
If you subscribe to my top 350 rankings, you know my views -- that he's been a major bargain all summer. Currently he's the overall-129 / RB42. That places him in the 11th round.
And what if we draft Saquon Barkley? That changes everything, or at least (in my opinion) it *should* change everything. Barkley's ADP is overall-14 / RB8, making him (on average) an early second rounder. If I take Barkley, I'm immediately pushing Bigsby up, because a Barkley/Bigsby combo gives me a lot more point security than drafting only Barkley and hoping the longtime bell cow -- who'll turn 30 before the next Super Bowl -- plays 16+ games.
So instead of a 14th/15th rounder, instead of a 12th/13th rounder, instead of an 11th rounder, I might need to play it safe and take him in the 10th.
Then there's overall draft strategy. Some of you prefer landing a bell cow or two in the opening rounds. If you go RB-RB to kick things off -- and if neither is Barkley -- then how much are you targeting Bigsby? If your opening is Bijan Robinson (overall-2 ADP) and Jeremiyah Love (overall-27), then locking down Brian Robinson Jr. (overall-163, just ahead of Bigsby) and Tyler Allgeier (overall-148) would/should be a priority, at least for me. Bigsby would be much lower on my target list.
But if you adopt a Zero-RB strategy, you might have an elite QB, elite TE, and elite WR along with a couple other weekly fantasy-starting WRs. With most/all RB starters gone, you might aim for guys like Jaylen Warren (overall-71) and teammate Rico Dowdle (overall-81). If you're looking for the highest-upside handcuffs -- lottery tickets to transform your otherwise middling-or-worse fantasy backfield -- then Bigsby might look more appealing as you snag as many lottery tickets as you can.
Then there's how many bench spots you have. A league with only six bench spots might make it difficult to stash more than one or two handcuffs, and those might be reserved for your starters' direct backups. A league with seven or eight bench spots would give you more flexibility.
What about bye weeks? If you draft two or three Chiefs (there are at least five fantasy-relevant K.C. players to choose from), you're staring at potentially tricky roster decisions when they hit their Week 5 bye. The highly fantasy-relevant Lions and Bengals are off Week 6. Some of you might draft three of the four primary Cincy options or four of the five primary Detroit options. In these situations, you probably can't afford to stash handcuffs like Bigsby unless (again) you also drafted their starters.
All these variables make rankings -- and ranking subsets like handcuffs -- incredibly complex. So let's simplify things for ourselves. At a minimum, let's recognize what we believe and why, customize our rankings to fit our thinking and strategy, and then stick to our game plan as much as possible. That's usually the recipe for a successful draft.
And if you want to take things a step further, write down any "if . . . then" scenarios that might alter your strategy mid-draft -- for example, how taking a bell cow could impact how you value their handcuff.
So if someone tells you their top-5 handcuffs, that's *their* top-5 based on their assessment of each player, their draft strategy, their . . . everything. And it's subject to change at any time.
Complexity happens when we're trying to interpret what someone else's rankings mean. I love it when subscribers tell me they've adjusted my rankings to fit their approach. That's perfect. That's simplifying the complex. Whether it's for every player or for certain positions or for something specific like handcuffs or rookies, we should all have rankings that fit what we believe and how we draft, and which also are malleable enough to be tweaked after our draft begins.
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