Showed my kids the movie "Speed" a few nights ago. First time I'd seen it since probably renting it at Blockbuster 20-25 years ago. There's a scene where Jack (Keanu Reeves) is running toward a moving subway train. To get on, he has to move along with it, running down the platform and timing his jump (and prying open the doors, but I'm digressing).
Sometimes a fantasy player's ADP pops. Over the course of several days or even several weeks, it's like a fast-moving train. Maybe a #1 WR gets knocked out for the season, and the #2 with a WR65 ADP is suddenly thrust into the top spot. If you're drafting pre-injury, that WR65 ADP might be pretty stable. But in the days or weeks after the news hits, you might not know where exactly to draft him, because he's leaving the station, and you'll probably need to run past the point you *thought* you could get him just to make sure you get on board.
Since ADPs are aggregates of recent draft decisions, a WR45 ADP in the example above (a #2 becoming the #1) might reflect a bunch of drafts where he was taken around WR45, 50, 55, etc., and also a bunch of drafts where he was taken around WR40, 35, 30, etc. We have no idea. The market is still catching up, and until the train stops, we won't know *where* it will stop.
This sets up a challenging situation for managers. We run the risk of waiting too long and missing out. We also run the risk of taking him much earlier than he'd otherwise get drafted.
In the past 12 days, a lot of players' ADPs have spiked to varying degrees. Some of their values are still spiking. Again, we have no idea where they'll settle. So if you're drafting soon and really want one or more of these guys, you might have to commit to reaching earlier than you think.
One obvious example is Mike Washington Jr. He's climbed 86 total spots to reach an overall-150 ADP, including five spots since Monday night. Even with Ashton Jeanty's injury nowhere near as bad as was initially feared, Washington keeps popping. Since his ADP likely includes drafts where he went much later (155, 160, 165, etc.), his "true" ADP could be 145, 140, or even 135 or better. He's on the move; to catch him, we'd probably need to reach a round or two earlier than expected . . . and hope it works out.
Keenan Allen (overall-173) has moved up 71 spots. He was also the overall-173 Monday night, suggesting that his value is solidifying. His train is probably about to stop, making it easier for managers to hop on. The same goes for fringe-relevant Caleb Douglas (overall-214), who's jumped 61 spots in 11 days, but only one spot since Monday night. Chris Bell's improved health outlook has slowed Douglas's momentum, and it might even reverse it.
Speaking of which, I expect Bell to pick up speed. He's moved up 38 spots to 267, which on paper makes him irrelevant to nearly every drafter. But his "true" ADP might be 240 or even 230. A week from now, you might not be able to get him after 200.
Najee Harris -- one of many reclamation projects the Giants have signed this summer -- has popped 68 spots to 257. While that alone doesn't make him draftable, his sustained movement (including three spots since Monday night) makes him a candidate to keep moving, especially while operating in a relatively injury-prone backfield.
Three more guys jump out as fast-movers. One is MarShawn Lloyd, who's up 45 spots to overall-190, including one spot since Monday night. He is increasingly looking like a must-draft handcuff in deep leagues, and Josh Jacobs' health issues and suspension risk are making Lloyd increasingly relevant.
Meanwhile, managers targeting Ja'Kobi Lane (overall-174) are in a fascinating situation. He's moved up 34 spots, but nothing since Monday night. He's also inching toward locking down the Ravens' #2 WR job. The fact that his ADP has stabilized (for now) makes it easier for interested managers to get him close to his ADP, rather than reach a round early.
Finally, there's De'Zhaun Stribling, who's jumped 45 spots to 125, including one spot since Monday night. But that doesn't capture how hard it's been for managers to pin down where to draft him. At the start of training camp, his ADP was around 275. Then Christian Kirk got hurt and Ricky Pearsall was knocked out for the season. In the span of a few weeks, he was a runaway train. Even though his movement has slowed, he's still hard to pin down.
This is yet another reason why ADPs are misleading. ADP plus (Movement divided by Time) = "Actual" ADP. Or something like that. We can't simply accept what the market says, because sometimes what we see has already passed us by.
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