Yesterday I highlighted some of the biggest recent ADP "risers" -- players whose values have skyrocketed -- and how it's often hard to figure out where to draft fast-moving gainers.
Now let's shift to a few players (draftable and fringe draftable) whose ADPs have dropped significantly in the past couple of weeks. As with the risers, it's hard to figure out where to draft rapid decliners. But that can be a good thing.
For example, rookie wideout Antonio Williams (overall-269) has plummeted 57 spots in the past 13 days, including 18 spots since Monday night. This is a direct result of the team signing Stefon Diggs to fill a top-2 WR role that Williams had been competing for. A few weeks ago, Williams might have been drafted in many 12-team leagues. Now we don't know what his bottom is, which makes it safer for, say, Best Ball managers to wait well past the 269th pick before getting him.
That's why massive ADP declines can help managers buy low. Would you believe that 13 days ago, Emanuel Wilson's overall ADP (225) was better than Mike Washington Jr.'s (236)? Then Jadarian Price returned to practice after recovering from leg soreness, and today Wilson is in a free fall at 296, including a 32-spot drop since Monday. His steep decline means his "actual" ADP might be closer to 330. I realize only very deep leaguers and those in Best Ball might have considered him draftable at 225, and even fewer would remotely consider someone near 300. But this helps illustrate how quickly a player's value can drop, and how this means his true value (where we can draft him) often is cheaper than his visible ADP (where we *think* we can draft him).
Jordyn Tyson (overall-133) is a different kind of decliner because he'll be on the shelf for about half a season, or possibly more. He's fallen 47 spots in 13 days, including eight since Monday. If you wanted to stash him on IR, could you get him with the 133rd overall pick? If the last few days is any indication (another eight spots dropped since Monday), then that should be doable. By the weekend he might be down to 140 or even 150, depending partly on how many other IR-qualified players are driving managers' interest. But the key is that you shouldn't have to reach for someone who value is actively descending.
A few other big droppers have begun to reverse course recently. From August 14 to August 24 to today, Emmett Johnson has shifted from 205 to 234, and now to 228. Makai Lemon has gone from 98 to 117 to 115. Jalen McMillan: 177 to 206 to 204. The declines are meaningful, but because their trend lines have changed, managers can't "play" the trends. There was a brief period when we might have consistently snagged Lemon at 120 or worse. But when these declines stop, managers need to draft Lemon more conservatively, because it's hard to go much lower when the price already has bottomed out.
Some of you have expressed interest in Chig Okonkwo as a late-round flyer. Presumably for Diggs-related reasons, Okonkwo's overall-164 ADP dipped to 179 this past Monday and to 180 today. If instead he'd gone from 250 to 210 to 180 these past 13 days, then managers would have needed to reach much earlier -- maybe into the top 160 -- to land him. But because he's been dropping, managers can more confidently target him at/around 180.
The sweet spot in all this is a draftable player (QBs and TEs roughly inside the top 150, and RBs and WRs roughly inside the top 200) whose ADP has dropped at least a couple rounds recently, but not because of the news or an injury. Sometimes the fantasy market loses interest in players who aren't generating buzz. Other times the market remains neutral, but other players ranked lower are generating more excitement and leapfrogging the "boring" player who almost one's talking about.
My last example typifies why I like investing in "boring" players with declining ADPs, as they often can be snagged below their already reduced price points. Matthew Golden had a 125 ADP 13 days ago. Now it's at 165. WR teammates Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are light years ahead and have barely moved these past few weeks. The market simply isn't excited about the Packers' 2025 first-round pick.
Even at 125, Golden was a massive bargain on my draft board -- an 11th-round pick with (in my view) seventh-round value. I advised subscribers to target him in the ninth round to be safe. But if he's fallen that quickly to 165, there's no need to be "safe." His actual ADP could be even lower as the market abandons him faster than ADPs can keep up.
While there could be a market correction (and I have almost no doubt there will be), this is where savvy managers can capitalize on free-falling players. We don't know where or when Golden will bottom out. There's a chance he's available (at least for now) well after pick #165. It's a unique opportunity to secure incredible value, and because our opponents probably aren't paying attention to shifting ADPs, it also gives us a meaningful competitive advantage.
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