Preseason games are almost entirely about backups. Regular season games are supposed to be almost entirely about starters. Of course, it doesn't always work out that way.
Among all RB starters entering last season, nine scored fewer points than one or more of their backups. The year before, six scored fewer. So these past two seasons, on the eve of Week 1, nearly one-fourth of starting running backs -- whether due to injuries or relatively poor play or both -- did not lead their backfields in total points.
Last night featured several backups who look poised for fantasy relevance if given the chance. While it's essentially inconceivable that rookie Mike Washington Jr. could supplant 2025 #5 overall pick Ashton Jeanty, arguably no running back has looked better in live action this summer. Washington has now rushed 15 times for 119 yards, or 7.9 yards per carry. He also has a couple catches.
2024 sixth-rounder Dylan Laube and UDFA Roman Hemby are running behind him, along with recently signed Dare Ogunbowale. In his brief career, Laube has rushed eight times for nine yards while losing two fumbles. Ogunbowale is 32 and had 11 carries for 25 yards (and a lost fumble) last season in Houston. No one is competing with Washington for handcuff duties.
So Washington's overall-184 / RB53 ADP makes him a prime buy target. Notably, his ADP a week ago was overall-236 / RB62. The market is jumping on board. The rookie is looking like a top-20 spot-starter if Jeanty is ever sidelined.
Texans second-year RB Woody Marks also looked good yesterday, posting a 4-37-1 rushing line and reeling in his only target. Despite running relatively inefficiently during his rookie campaign, Marks overtook end-of-career Nick Chubb for the #1 backfield role. Now he's operating behind late-career David Montgomery.
I've written and podcasted about this for a couple months, and it bears repeating: Marks' and Montgomery's ADPs make no sense. In the past month, Montgomery's RB ADP has dropped only three spots to 23, while Marks has improved only two spots to 43. I've had both guys ranked side-by-side and am almost ready to push Marks ahead. This is one of many backfields featuring a declining #1 and an ascending #2.
Elsewhere last night, Kaelon Black made another push for handcuff duties behind Christian McCaffrey. The rookie is battling Jordan James and Isaac Guerendo. Black has the benefit of being healthy, which is unusual these days for Niners playmakers. You all know my views on McCaffrey, historical data pointing to a 93% chance of a major statistical regression and/or injury. Black's overall-238 / RB64 ADP last week has now dropped to 240 / RB65. If I'm correct about McCaffrey, then Black has as good a shot as anyone to lead this backfield.
But it isn't just running backs. Among all teams' #1 WRs entering last season, 10 did not lead their team in fantasy points. The year before, five didn't lead their team. So these past two seasons, on the eve of Week 1, nearly one-fourth of team #1 wide receivers -- whether due to injuries or relatively poor play or both -- did not lead their wideout corps in total points. It's the same percentage as #1 RBs who fall short. That shocked me when I did the research: #1 WRs haven't necessarily been "safer" than #1 RBs.
This preseason, we're already seeing signs of non-#1 WRs pushing for prominent roles, and perhaps eventually outscoring their teams' top wideout. De'Zhaun Stribling -- the rookie WR I've been pushing as a bargain more than any other rookie WR these past two month -- looked great last night, collecting a 4-46 receiving line. He's now caught 11 of his 13 targets for 109 yards. Would you be that shocked if he outperformed Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel?
The fantasy market still gives Evans an overall-64 / WR28 ADP -- the same as last week. Samuel also has a nearly identical ADP, inching up one overall and positional spot to 128 / WR51. And Stribling? The market is finally coming around, though gradually. Last Friday he was at overall-170 / WR60. Now's 138 / WR55. He'll probably hit around 120 / WR50 by the middle of next week. It still won't be good enough.
We know there will be surprised this season, just as there are every season. As always, the key is trying to identify what will happen before it does. Washington, Marks, Black, and Stribling all started this summer in great spots for very different reasons. The market largely overlooked them. But three of them have realistic shots (especially if you trust historical data for 400+ touch RBs) at leading their backfield / receiving corps in fantasy points. The fourth (Washington) is shaping up to be a must-draft handcuff.
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