Ashton Jeanty had an RB6 ADP last summer. The #6 overall pick was expected to dominate. I had no good reason to question it, so he was the RB3 on my draft board.
Except I *did* have a reason to question it. The problem is that I didn't use the information I'd been compiling for years: the college workloads and NFL fantasy careers of every running back who entered the league since the late 1990's. The data was there. But I hadn't invested enough time to really analyze it. If I'd done that, he would have been a major fade.
Instead, Jeanty is the reason I've spent hours and hours this summer slicing up the data to better understand the relationship between college touches and fantasy production. Here's what I should have shared last summer, and why I feel confident that (barring an unforeseen injury) he'll rebound in a big way this year.
Jeanty had 397 touches in his final season at Boise State. No first round pick since at least 1996 (the furthest back my spreadsheet goes) has ever had more. That should have been a red flag entering his rookie campaign, because running backs with massive workloads in their final college season frequently underwhelm in the first NFL season. For example, here are the other first-round RBs with 350+ touches in their final college season:
(1) Steven Jackson (394 touches in his final college campaign) played behind the legendary Mashall Faulk as a rookie, so it's hard to gauge what he might have done as a full-time starter. Instead, he was the overall RB38 in points per game while missing two contests.
(2) Donald Brown (388 touches) missed five games and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry compared to 4.1 the rest of his career.
(3) Ricky Williams (385) missed four games and had averaged 3.5 YPC compared to 4.2 the rest of his career.
(4) Chris Perry (382) missed 14 games and had two carries for one yard and three catches.
(5) LaDainian Tomlinson (379) -- one of the greatest and most durable running backs of the past several decades -- finished as the RB9 in points per game while averaging only 3.6 YPC compared to 4.4 the rest of his career.
(6) Melvin Gordon (362) missed two games and averaged only 3.5 YPC compared to 4.2 the rest of his career.
(7) Thomas Jones (356) missed two games and averaged only 3.3 YPC compared to 4.0 the rest of his career.
---
Here's what jumps out to me: Until the very ends of their careers, most of these guys experienced their worst statistical performances as rookies. Most ran incredibly inefficiently, particularly when compared to how they did in future years. And consider how many of these RBs went on to dominate despite (with the exception of Tomlinson) frequently struggling in Year 1.
Specifically, Jackson and Williams each had four top-10 fantasy seasons. Gordon and Jones had three. Brown was significantly better in three of his next four seasons. And of course Tomlinson simply crushed it, racking up eight straight top-10 finishes to begin his career, including six straight in the top 2. He was a true unicorn.
And this isn't limited to first-round running backs. But since first-round rookies frequently are ranked better than Day 2 and Day 3 rookies, the expectations are higher.
Jeanty was a locked-in near-elite RB last summer. Except it didn't play out that way, because that's what usually happens. It shouldn't have been shocking that he netted a sub-par 3.7 YPC, cracking 4.0 in only three games. We might blame the Raiders' offensive line. But that didn't stop 33-year-old backup Raheem Mostert from posting 4.7 YPC despite enduring a career-low 1.6 yards-before-first-contact.
If we apply this to the 2027 NFL draft, Kewan Lacey is one of the top RB prospects. He had 335 touches last year. If Ole Miss gives him another massive workload, he'll probably be a huge fantasy fade next summer as a potential first-round pick.
Looking backward is easy. But it's also necessary if we want to know when to "zig" when the fantasy market "zags."
---