In the past 28 seasons, teams have produced at least one top-70 fantasy WR more than 99% of the time. On only eight occasions -- including only three times in the past 14 years -- has a team's WR corps failed to hit that mark.
Often this fluke happens because of injuries to a team's top wideouts. In 2024, Chris Olave missed nine games and Rashid Shaheed missed 11. That left Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the Saints' top fantasy wide receiver, finishing as the WR87. In 2021, Sterling Shepherd and Kadarius Toney were sidelined for 10 and seven games, respectively. That left free-falling Kenny Golladay as the Giants' #1 wide receiver (WR79).
The same thing happened to the Browns in 2017 (#1 wideout Corey Coleman missed seven games), in 2011 to the Jaguars (co-#1 Jason Hill missed six games) and Seahawks (#1 Sidney Rice missed seven games.
The last time significant injuries did *not* contribute to this "feat" was in 2010, when rookie Colt McCoy, 35-year-old Jake Delhomme (in his final NFL starts), and Seneca Wallace (who earned what would become his final NFL victory) "led" a Browns' passing attack that featured wideouts Mohamed Massaquoi, Brian Robiskie, Chansi Stuckey, and Joshua Cribbs. These four receivers finished as the WR72, WR85, WR86, and WR92, respectively, despite missing only four games combined.
This is significant because it might be the most recent example of a team with (objectively, by NFL standards) a bottom-tier QB group throwing to a spread-the-ball, bottom-tier WR group whose players essentially canceled each other out. None of them caught more than 40 passes. None of them cleared 500 receiving yards.
If Cleveland had had even a middling quarterback, one of his four "top" receivers might have achieved deep-league streamability. Or if Cleveland had had only two core starters along with inconsequential tertiary options, one of those two starters might have achieved deep-league streamability. Or if in that year's draft they'd passed on talented cornerback Joe Haden at overall pick #7 and instead snagged Demaryius Thomas (the eventual #22 pick) or Dez Bryant (who fell to #24), they might have had a Year 1 alpha who could crack the top 40.
But no. A combination of unlikely events -- again, something we probably haven't seen since -- left the Browns with four entirely unstartable fantasy WRs.
I bring all this up because this year's Dolphins could be the closest thing to that Browns team. Miami has a shaky passing attack, to put it mildly. It's led by Malik Willis, a 27-year-old with only six career starts. His wide receivers (and their ADPs) include Malik Washington (WR74), Jalen Tolbert (WR93), rookie Caleb Douglas (WR94), rookie Chris Bell (WR99), rookie Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR149), and Tutu Atwell (WR172). Former first-rounder Jalen Reagor (WR198) and former second-rounder Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR200) are trying to make it through final cuts.
The fantasy market has no idea what to make of this group. In the past week, Washington has jumped eight WR ADP spots, Tolbert has moved up three, Coleman has moved up two, and Douglas has gone from unranked to "in the running for #1 WR. Meanwhile, Bell has dropped 14 spots, and Atwell has plummeted 50.
When we factor in a catch-friendly backfield led by De'Von Achane (145 catches these past two seasons), we might see how this is setting up a perfect storm of WR fantasy futility.
Of course, injuries could change everything, and there's also still time for someone to ascend to an alpha role, even if it's relatively muted. But at the moment, we're in nearly unprecedented territory, at least for this century. For any of these guys to be "draftable," a lot of things need to go right. So far, the market appears to be correct in not committing to anyone. But some managers are taking the leap, burning one or more bench spots on a seemingly low-ceiling gamble.
99+ times out of 100, rosters don't look like this. Unless Willis looks fantastic, and unless the receiving corps thins to no more than two primary pass catchers, and unless Achane *isn't* a high-volume offensive centerpiece, all of Miami's WRs will be longshots to hit 100 points.
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