The market has biases. From 2013 to 2023 (the years I tracked this stuff), the Bengals and Packers covered the spread the most. The market undervalued their weekly potential more often than any other teams. For example, Cincinnati covered the spread 75% of the time in 2022. How could a team that reached the Super Bowl the previous season be so disregarded? And yet it happened.
Conversely, the Browns covered the spread only 6.7 times per year from 2013 to 2023. The market consistently believed they were better than they actually were. They finished 3-13 in 2015 and entered the 2016 season tied with the Niners for the worst Super Bowl odds. Again, the market believed they would be better than they actually were. Cleveland covered the spread only three times that year.
There are similar biases in fantasy, and that's what I want to highlight today.
From 2012 to 2025, 128 wide receivers aged 30 and up were ranked among the top 50 WRs entering Week 1. 148 wide receivers below 24 years old also had top-50 WR ADPs. So the data sets are pretty comparable, with an average of 8.5 per year in the older group and 9.8 in the younger.
When the 30+ year-old receivers were ranked in the top 12, they outperformed their ADPs 16.7% of the time vs. 19.2% for the under-24 crowd. In the next tier -- the top 13-24 WRs -- the older guys outperformed ADPs 25% of the time vs. 57.1% for the younger guys. The next tier (WR25-36 ADP) had 33.3% of older guys exceeding expectations vs. 37.0% of younger guys. And among the WR37-48 ADP players, 42.3% of older guys exceeded expectations vs. 48.1% of younger guys.
My "ADP vs. Scoring" spreadsheet divides all WRs into four age groups: under 24, 24-26, 27-29, and 30+. The youngest group consists largely of players who *should* be ascending, in that we probably haven't seen them at their best. 24-26 spans pre-prime and prime receivers. 27-29 spans prime and post-prime players. The oldest tier generally includes two types of wideouts: mini-generational talents (like Mike Evans and Davante Adams) who don't noticeably slow down when they turn 30, and fading WRs clinging to relevance.
It's fascinating that within these four tiers, the under-24 group is the most likely to exceed preseason ADP expectations. More specifically, the top 1-12 WRs are the second-most-likely group to exceed expectations. The top 13-24 WRs are also the most likely group. Ther top 25-36 WRs are the second-most-likely group. And the top 37-48 WRs are the most likely to exceed expectations.
So compared to all other WR age groups during the preseason, the market slightly-yet-meaningfully undervalues under-24-year-old WRs. It shouldn't surprise subscribers that, for example, 23-year-old Emeka Egbuka (WR18 ADP) is one of my favorite early-round bargains. It's not only because of this data, but the data helps solidify my thinking.
Meanwhile, 30+ year-olds are the *least* likely to exceed ADP expectations. More specifically, the top 1-12 WRs are the least likely, along with the top 13-24 and the top 25-36. The top 37-48 WRs are the second-least-likely group to exceed expectations.
So compared to all other WR age groups during the preseason, the market slightly-yet-meaningfully *overvalues* 30+ year-old WRs. This is one of many reasons why I've tagged Terry McLaurin (WR24 ADP), and Courtland Sutton (WR34) as fades.
As always, no single data set holds all or even most of the answers. But if one data set shows there's a 70% chance that a player with particular criteria is overvalued, and another data set shows it's 80%, and another shows 60%, and so on, then at some point we have enough intel to make an informed prediction.
One quick aside: the average age of the top-50 ADP WRs is 25.7. That's the youngest since pre-2012 (since my spreadsheet goes back only to 2012). One reason is that only five top-50 WRs are aged 30 or older. That's the second-fewest since pre-2012. Maybe the market is learning.
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* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 202: "An Actionable RB Warning Sign" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html