They were both 2018 first-round picks. During their rookie campaigns, they took over their respective team's starting job, posting middling passing numbers and elite rushing prowess. Between the two of them, they've been the QB1 in six of the last seven seasons, due largely to their production on the ground.
And that's the key to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. They are uniquely dominant rushers. Each of their teams has finished in the top 8 in passing yards only once since they entered the league. During Jackson's QB1 season in 2019, Baltimore had the fourth-fewest passing yards and the fewest pass attempts. He's thrown more than 26 TD passes only twice.
Allen's throws per game peaked in 2021 and have been steadily declining ever since, while his passing TD totals have dropped each year since 2020. Among all qualifying (1,500+ career pass attempts) 2026 starting QBs, only Geno Smith has a worse interception rate. But perhaps that's more a function of his aggressive style, which sometimes leads to bad picks, and other times leads to impressive comebacks (including 17 wins after trailing in the fourth quarter).
A big reason why they're not more prolific/dominant through the air is because they run. If they were merely pocket passers, Jackson and Allen might throw 600+ times in a season. Jackson could have had 50 TD throws two years ago. Allen might have already broken Peyton Manning's single-season passing-yards record . . . several times.
Allen (QB1 ADP) is now 30 years old. Jackson (QB2) will turn 30 in January. As pocket passers, they'd still be squarely in their prime. As dual-threat quarterbacks, they are approaching old age. As shared previously, run-friendly QBs often begin sharp regressions somewhere around 30, 31, 32 years old.
And maybe we've already begun to see it in Jackson, and not because he's missed 4+ games in three of the past five years. What jumps out to me are things like his rushing attempts per game, which stood at 11.08 in 2021, fell to 9.33 in 2022, then almost leveled out at 9.25 in 2023 before falling again to 8.18 in 2024. Last year it was 5.15, supposedly because he wasn't near 100% physically in the second half of the season. But if that were the case, how would we explain his 21 carries in his first 3 3/4 contests before first getting hurt . . . a pro-rated average of only 5.60 carries per game?
Both guys are great passers who happen to be legendary QB rushers, and their fantasy production is weighted disproportionately toward their running. If age or injuries reduces Jackson to a five- or six-carry-per-game quarterback, how would that impact his overall fantasy numbers? Could he make up for that loss by doing more through the air? And when Allen eventually slows down on the ground, can he still be elite as a more pass-heavy quarterback?
Historically, it's been rare for a dual-threat QB to make this transition and still be fantasy relevant. So for now, it's both easy to see why Allen and Jackson are the two top-ranked fantasy quarterbacks, and it's also seemingly easy to see why we can't view them like we did a few years ago. Jackson's already showing signs. Allen isn't yet, but is on the wrong side of 30.
One thing about most dual-threat quarterbacks: when the decline comes, it comes quickly, and it's usually irreversible. Michael Vick was the QB1 at age 30, the QB11 at age 31, the QB27 at age 32, and progressively worse until he retired. Cam Newton was top-8 in points per game in seven of his first eight campaigns. The following year he turned 30, and he was never better than QB18 until he retired.
Russell Wilson wasn't worse than the overall QB11 in any of his first nine seasons, with an average ranking of QB6. Then he turned 33 and never finished better than 14th until he retired. Steve McNair was top-9 in six of seven seasons beginning in his third year. Then he turned 31 and never finished better than 19th until he retired.
We can celebrate Jackson and Allen as two incredible, high-ceiling fantasy quarterbacks. And we should also begin watching for warning signs.
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