Two summers ago, Aaron Rodgers had a QB19 ADP. His de facto #1 receiver Garrett Wilson's ADP was WR7, while (essentially) co-#1 receiver Davante Adams had a WR10 ADP. Today, this combination would seem bizarre. How could a sub-middling fantasy quarterback feed two weekly fantasy starters? Either Rodgers was undervalued, or one (or both) of his receivers were overvalued.
But I didn't notice this. My rankings had Rodgers as the QB21, yet 35 spots below his overall ADP. He was priced about right positionally and also needed to be pushed below supposedly "lesser" (based on ADP) players like Bucky Irving, Rasheed Shaheed, and Quentin Johnston.
But I barely nudged Wilson and Adams, making them my WR12 and WR9, respectively. I analyzed them separately from Rodgers. Or maybe I understood the connection but didn't take it seriously.
Either way, it was a lesson learned. Rodgers finished that season as the QB20 in points per game, while Adams was the WR10. 2-for-2? Rockin'. Yet the big miss was with Wilson, who posted WR21 numbers. So yes, Rodgers couldn't feed two weekly fantasy wideouts. Anecdotally, that seems to be the norm.
Applying this to current ADPs, the Lions have a somewhat strange combination of values. Jahmyr Gibbs -- one of the league's most catch-friendly running backs -- is the overall RB1. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the WR4. Even if you don't believe in Jameson Williams like I do, his WR25 ADP suggests nothing worse than weekly streamability. And Sam LaPorta is the TE7.
Where does this leave Jared Goff? Last year's QB12 is this summer's QB16. His four primary targets are all ranked roughly where they finished last season: Gibbs was 2025's RB3, St. Brown was the WR4, Williams was the WR21, and LaPorta was the TE7. Two identical, two nearly identical. And yet the market expects Goff to be worse -- or at least worse compared to a rough majority of other starting quarterbacks.
There are other factors, of course, like a QB's durability, the abilities of tertiary options to step up if needed, etc. But all things being equal, I would expect either Goff to be ranked better or one or more of his key playmakers to be ranked worse.
Dual-threat QBs don't operate the same way, since a relatively sizable percentage of their fantasy production comes on the ground. Last summer, the top 40 ADP WRs didn't include any Bills, despite Josh Allen operating as the presumed QB1. Khalil Shakir led the way with a WR44 ADP. He ended up leading Buffalo's fantasy wideouts, finishing as the WR44. 39% of Allen's QB1 points were rushing-based. His passing numbers were expected to be merely adequate from a fantasy perspective, and that's what happened.
But guys like Goff are different. 98.5% of his 2025 output came through the air. His impact on his four primary pass-catchers is more predictable, because the Lions' offense is designed to feed about three playmakers per game.
If you have time, isolate each team's top-200 overall ADPs. You might find there are quite a few situations where the market is under-/over-valuing a QB or under-/over-valuing one or more of his main targets.
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* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 203: "Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre' Harris" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html