"32 Teams in 32 Days" is over. Three days from now, all teams will have reported to camp. So we're about to enter the next phase of the preseason, when player hype -- and whatever's the opposite of hype -- will dominate news feeds. I'll aim to keep out the noise and focus on what we (a) know, and (b) can somewhat confidently predict.
Two quick reminders, and then fantasy thoughts on some fascinating stats:
First, yesterday was my 200th episode of the FF4W podcast, which drops every day at 5:00am Eastern through the end of the season. I'm not a fan of vagueness or small talk (or vague small talk). So these episodes are brief, deep dives into players and statistical trends that impact fantasy values. If you like listening to things, click the link near the bottom of this post and try it out. If there's a player or topic you want to discuss on a future episode, message me.
Second, click a different link below to sign up for my annual top 350 rankings. Thanks to everyone who donates. If you've never signed up because you're nervous about giving money to a stranger online, well then, kudos for showing good judgment. That said, strangers have been subscribing to these rankings for the past decade -- and many return year after year. So if you're nervous, donate a penny and see if it's worth it. If it is, then consider donating more next time.
---
I was examining 2025 NFL stats and comparing them to previous seasons. At first, the numbers seemed to tell a story. Then other numbers contradicted that story. Still trying to make sense of it as I'm writing this. If you have an opinion, shout it out.
Last year teams averaged only 26.8 carries per game, which is the 7th-fewest in history. It's the continuation of a somewhat steady trend dating back to the 1933 -- the start of a 20-year stretch when teams netted at least 35 carries per game. Then it started dipping pretty consistently into the low 30's, rose a bit in the mid-1970's, and dropped below 30 for the first time in 1989. It has never topped 29 since.
Last year also produced the 5th-most rushing yards per carry. So we're seeing a combination of less rushing and more efficiency.
While this is happening, there are sustained lows in yards per reception. The six lowest yards-per-catch averages have occurred in each of the last six seasons. Last year was the 3rd-lowest in history. 2025 also marked the fewest receptions per game since 2011. So we're seeing fewer catches and less production per catch. Is this partly due to a rise in catch-friendly running backs, who are bringing down these averages? That's my best guess at the moment.
Not surprisingly (given this data), last year saw the fewest pass attempts per game since 2006 and the 3rd-fewest since 1991, as well as the fewest passing/receiving yards per game since 2006. And yet, last year marked the 3rd-highest passing-TD percentage since 1969 and the 4th-best passer rating ever.
2025 also witnessed the fewest offensive plays per game since 1992. That also translates into the fewest offensive drives per game since this stat started being recorded in 1998.
Does that mean we're seeing a drop-off in fantasy production? The top-50 offensive fantasy producers last season averaged 281.2 points. Ten years earlier it was 277.3. 10 years before that it was 250.8. So not at all. Managers actually are averaging more points from their weekly starters.
Going deeper, the top-12 RBs averaged 309.1 points last year -- the most since 2006. In fact, the average from 2007 to 2024 was only 272.7 points. That's a notable increase. Top 13-24 RBs averaged 211.0 points, which was the second-most since 2002 and also 16.6 points above the average for 2003 to 2024. But those same bumps aren't there for the top 25-36, 37-48, and 49-60 RBs. Clearly the shifts in rushing numbers primarily benefitted weekly fantasy starters.
Meanwhile, the fantasy-point gap between the #1 and #10 WR last year 154 -- the second-highest since before 2010 (my spreadsheet goes back only to 2010). The gap between the #1 WR and #25 WR (187 points). For TEs, the gap between #1 and #10, along with #1 and #25, are both the fifth-largest since before 2010 -- not as pronounced as with WRs, but still notable.
QBs are entirely different. Last year's 78-point gap between the QB1 and QB10 was the 3rd-lowest since pre-2010, and the gap between QB1 and QB25 (204 points) was the lowest since 2016.
Finally, last year saw the 2nd-most plays per drive since the stats started getting tracked in 1998. Per above, yes, there are fewer drives. But teams are keeping the ball longer. They're also getting more out of each drive, netting the second-most points per drive -- and also earning the 2nd-most drives ending in a score -- since 1998 (again, because the stat didn't exist earlier). Given this, it shouldn't be surprising that last season had the fewest punts per game in NFL history.
To summarize, 2025 produced (a) less running, (b) better running, (c) less passing, and (d) better passing. The top RBs are the biggest winners. The top WRs and TEs were more successful than in most years. But the top QBs were less successful than usual. Actually, if we take the QB1, QB5, QB10, QB15, QB20, and QB25 (I have a spreadsheet that breaks down each position like this), last year they averaged the fewest points since 2017. That last part feeds a little into a recent podcast episode I did on the recent rise of preseason QBs ranked outside the top 14, which comes at the expense of some of the top preseason QBs.
Collectively, it seems that with fewer offensive plays, teams with spread-the-ball offenses face the strongest fantasy headwinds. There are fewer touches to go around and more TD dependency. For more top-heavy offenses, touches and scoring opportunities are more streamlined.
Again, a lot to digest, and it also sets the stage for the next 6 1/2 weeks leading up to Week 1. Macro statistics usually don't tell us much. But macro statistics that are historical outliers tell us a lot -- sometimes more than we can fully understand until we start breaking down the data and viewing it through a fantasy lens.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 201: "A Complete 180 on Chiefs Rookie RB Emmett Johnson" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 201: "A Complete 180 on Chiefs Rookie RB Emmett Johnson" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html