Six summers ago, I warned readers that 24-year-old Christian McCaffrey (#1 overall ADP) was an injury and/or regression candidate after racking up 403 touches the year before. He played only three games that season.
Two summers ago, I warned readers that 28-year-old McCaffrey (#1 overall ADP) was an even bigger injury and/or regression candidate after racking up 417 touches (including the playoffs) the year before. He appeared in only four games that season.
One of the two exceptions was 28-year-old Marshawn Lynch, whose career-high 17 touchdowns in 2014 helped propel him to a 27-fantasy-point bump over 2013's 403-touch campaign. The other exception was one-of-a-kind Walter Payton, who'd already amassed 360+ touches five times entering his age-31 season in 1984, when he compiled an incredible 476 touches (including the playoffs). Sometimes people say, "Oh, this guy's built differently." But Payton was peerless. He played in 176 straight games from late 1975 to early 1987.
So after cracking nearly 500 touches in '84, Payton ran it back in '85 for the 18-1 Super Bowl champs, finishing 1.1 fantasy points above his previous year's mark.
Those are the exceptions. Every other 27+ year-old -- from Eric Dickerson to Eddie George to Curtis Martin to LaDainian Tomlinson (twice), and even Payton in 1986 -- endured fantasy dips that were often significant.
McCaffrey is coming off a 413-touch effort. He's now 30 years old. And yet, his ADP is RB3. The market is convinced he'll dominate. I'd rather play the percentages.
That's why managers should monitor San Francisco's backfield these next few weeks. Jordan James, rookie Kaelon Black, and even the injured Isaac Guerendo are all bargains based on current ADPs. James is a 2025 fifth-rounder with one college workhorse season under his belt. Black is a third-round rookie whose usage peaked at 13.0 touches per game as a sophomore at James Madison. Guerendo, who briefly boosted managers as a spot starter the last time McCaffrey was sidelined, is a 2024 fourth-rounder who surpassed 13 carries only twice across six partial-to-full college seasons.
So we have a highly risky first-round draft pick, backed by three handcuff candidates with 99 combined NFL touches. Except Guerendo has all 99. And no one knows if he'll be healthy by Week 1.
If Black crushes the preseason, his RB70 ADP easily could push past James's RB61. Or if Guerendo resumes practicing in August and either James or Black flops, then Guerendo -- whose ADP recently has plummeted from RB99 to unranked (somewhere outside the top 125) -- could push into the top 70.
It sets up an uncomfortable drafting situation for managers who really want McCaffrey, despite the massive risks: take him in the first round, and then commit to taking James and Black (and possibly Guerendo if he's back and locked in) near the final rounds. Because the double-pain of losing a starter, and then watching an opponent snag the replacement, is real.
When CMC was knocked out in 2020, Mike Davis (RB88 / overall-308 ADP) took over, finishing as the RB12. In 2024, CMC's injury enabled Jordan Mason (RB54 / overall-199 ADP) to post streamable-to-must-startable numbers from Weeks 1-7, while Guerendo (RB85 / overall-333) came through down the stretch.
That's why these next few weeks are so important. Whether or not you want to draft CMC, root for one backup to rise to the top. Simplify the selection process. Almost no one wants to stash three or more RB teammates. The problem is that I don't see anyone rising to the top.
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