Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Tyler Shough build off of his solid rookie campaign?
2. Will Travis Etienne continue to be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Is Alvin Kamara still relevant?
4. Can rookie WR Jordan Tyson be at least a weekly streamer?
5. Can Juwan Johnson replicate his breakout 2025 numbers?
Since Drew Brees' retirement six years ago, New Orleans has been searching for a new franchise-elevating quarterback. Tyler Shough might be that guy. Or maybe his small rookie-year sample size is giving fantasy managers too much confidence. But it's hard to argue with how well he played with a thinned-out receiving corps and a backfield consisting of (in most games) Devin Neal, Audric Estime, and Evan Hull.
Shough's chemistry with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson made all the difference, propelling him to 17.1 points per start. Across a 17-game season, that would equal about 290 points. Presumably he could/should be even better with an improved backfield and receiving corps. So why is his ADP at QB20 (vs. QB19 last week)? Because there are so many quarterbacks with strong 17+ point potential. He's in a group of about 10-12 non-top-14 guys who could realistically finish in the top 14, making him especially valuable in Superflex.
Olave is a no-brainer at his WR13 ADP, which had been WR14 and WR12 the year before. The market seems settled on him as a weekly must starter, despite the arrival of #8 overall pick Jordan Tyson. The incoming rookie brings gobs of talent and an extensive injury history. His WR34 ADP (vs. WR31 last week) would make sense for a guy who hasn't dealt with soft-tissue injuries, a broken collarbone, and a brutal knee injury that somehow didn't derail his college career. I need to see more from Tyson before trusting him at his price point, which makes him at least a slight fade for now.
In the #3 WR role, low-ceiling Devaughn Vele (WR101 ADP vs. 106 last week) will compete against rookie fourth-rounder Byrce Lance (WR115 vs. WR112) and rookie sixth-rounder Barion Brown (unranked). Lance is a complete mystery; he faced only one FBS college team (Colorado in 2024), posting a meek 3-32-0 receiving line. Lance's rookie outcomes range from #3 WR to #6 WR. We'll probably know if it's closer to WR3/4 in about a month.
Meanwhile, Juwan Johnson (TE18 ADP vs. TE19 last week) probably won't command the same target share this year. But he's still a solid bye-week streamer unless Noah Fant (TE49 vs. unranked last week) somehow pushes for a timeshare.
And with the Alvin Kamara era winding down, Travis Etienne will take over as the #1 RB. Kamara has had a legendary run since getting drafted in the third round in 2017. He began that campaign as the #3 running back behind prime Mark Ingram and 32-year-old Adrian Peterson. Kamara leapfrogged both of them in Year 1 and never looked back. Among all players (including receivers), his 606 catches place him in the top 100 all time, just ahead of former Saints #1 WR Joe Horn. He's #6 all time among RBs.
It's somewhat fitting that he began his career with an RB52 ADP, and now entering his 10th season, it's RB54. If he hangs around New Orleans as a third-down, change-of-pace back, he could crack the top 50 on receptions alone. In other words, don't ignore him yet. The market certainly hasn't: his ADP last week was RB56. The closer we get to the start of the season, the more intriguing he'll become if he's the clear-cut #2.
Etienne might make some managers nervous at his RB16 ADP (vs. RB17 last week). Since busting out as a rookie in 2022, he's averaged just under 4.0 yards per carry. His elite early-career broken-tackle rate has given way to a sub-pedestrian mark. His drop rate ballooned last year. Across his career, Etienne's efficiency has (on average) peaked in September, dipped a little in October, and then dropped precipitously in November/December. He's also much more efficient in first halves versus second halves.
If we believe this is happening for a reason, then that reason might connect to durability or stamina. Who knows. But if he gets off to a hot start in the first few weeks, then history suggests managers should sell high. In the meantime, I'm comfortable investing at his price point, because bell cows outside the top 16 are hard to find.
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