Five Biggest Questions:
1. How good can Drake Maye be?
2. Will TreVeyon Henderson be the clear #1 RB?
3. Will Rhamondre Stevenson have stand-alone value?
4. Can A.J. Brown pick up where he left off in Philadelphia?
5. Is Romeo Doubs streamable?
Yesterday focused on an old quarterback who posted elite 2025 numbers, thanks largely to two top-10 fantasy WRs (in points per game) and four TD-friendly tight ends (along with a great backfield). Today we shift to a young quarterback who posted elite 2025 numbers despite having no top-20 WRs and only one barely streamable TE (along with a great backfield).
While Matthew Stafford's campaign was more improbable, Drake Maye's was no less remarkable. He engineered QB2 production in a spread-the-ball offense led by the WR25, WR53, WR63, WR87, TE13, and TE49. His three top targets were 31-32 years old. One of the keys to Maye's success was connecting on 72.0% of his attempts -- tied for the fifth-best season percentage. In fact, everyone else in the top 60 was older. He was that good, and presumably he'll get better. His QB3 ADP is entirely reasonable.
His ceiling hinges in part on 29-year-old A.J. Brown, who somehow finished last season as the WR11 in points per game after collecting only three double-digit performances in the first 10 weeks. Managers who stuck with him or bought low got vintage Brown down the stretch. But that was in Philly's top-heavy offense. In New England last year, Stefon Diggs' customary massive target share plummeted. Will the same thing happen to Brown? That's what concerns me. If the Patriots continue to spread the ball, there's almost no way for Brown to make good on his WR9 ADP, even if he happens to remain healthy despite chronic knee issues. He's a major fade on my draft board.
Romeo Doubs is a wait-and-see flyer at his seemingly generous WR51 ADP. The former Packer is accustomed to playing in a crowded receiving corps. The Patriots might try to move Kayshon Boutte (WR80), who shined on only 46 targets last year. If Boutte stays, he could realistically challenge Doubs for the #2 role. If he goes, DeMario Douglas (WR103), Kyle Williams (WR118), and/or Mack Hollins (WR128) could cut into Doubs' ceiling . . . unless they sign Deebo Samuel or some other decent-impact free agent wideout.
Meanwhile, this could be Hunter Henry's (TE16 ADP) final season as an NFL starter. The Pats drafted Eli Raridon (TE61) in the third round. Raridon is an unusually athletic tight end with a limited college track record due to multiple serious injuries. If he can stay on the field, Raridon could be a more productive version of previous #2 TE Austin Hooper. I recognize that Henry can still be a top-16 guy, and I also wouldn't lunge for a 31-year-old with a seemingly low ceiling.
That leaves the backfield -- one of the most fascinating RB corps from a value perspective. I did a podcast on TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson earlier this summer. There is (I believe) a massive misconception about how these two will operate. Henderson's RB21 ADP is just a little above his per-game ranking last year (RB25). Stevenson's RB30 ADP puts him nine spots below his 2025 output.
So it sounds reasonable. Except it misses the bigger point. Stevenson was the lead RB before getting hurt midseason. He was averaging 12.4 touches through Week 8 versus Henderson's 8.9 touches. Then when Stevenson returned to the field in Week 12 -- on through the rest of the season -- he averaged 10.5 touches versus Henderson's 14.8. The rookie was now the lead back.
The market values them as if Henderson were only narrowly ahead. Stevenson struggles with ball security and has averaged three missed games per season since entering the league. Although Henderson might not be ready to be a true workhorse, if he picks up where he left off (14.8 touches per game), he'd be just above 250 touches on the year, or a roughly 16% bump above 2025. 250 is more likely a floor than a ceiling. He's one of my favorite fantasy breakout candidates and is currently in my top 12.
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