Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Matthew Stafford once again be a weekly fantasy starter?2. Is Kyren Williams a top-16 RB?3. Will Blake Corum close the gap with Williams?4. Can Davante Adams finish in the top 20?5. Who will be the #1 TE and will it matter?
Last year, 37-year-old Matthew Stafford became the first preseason non-top-20 QB (based on ADP) to finish in the top 3 since . . . never? Or at least since before 2012, because that's how far back my "ADP vs. Scoring" spreadsheet goes. He's actually part of a shifting trend regarding seemingly "undraftable" QBs are. (Today's podcast dives deeper into this subject through data analytics for all preseason quarterbacks since 2012.)
Those who took a chance on Stafford landed one of the greatest QB bargains in history. Aside from his advancing age, he had one of the best WR tandems. A weak tertiary WR corps helped produce a fantastic TE foursome that collectedly amassed 103 catches for 1,128 yards and 17 touchdowns (not a typo). His 1A and 1B running backs consistently extended drives. It was a near perfect storm of success.
Since the season ended, I've been really curious where the market would place Stafford this summer. Turns out it's a pretty mild QB14 ADP. Managers generally don't trust him, despite what he did last year. I can't argue with the logic. Davante Adams will turn 34 in December. Sixth-round rookie C.J. Daniels was the big WR addition, meaning the Rams are betting that Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Adams will once again be "reasonably" healthy. That seems like a big ask.
One more thing to consider, and it's not necessarily obvious because analysts and managers usually focus solely on regular-season stats. But Stafford aired it out 119 times in the playoffs, giving him 716 on the year -- his second-most since 2013. The most was during his 2021 Super Bowl-winning campaign. He missed eight games the following season.
It's not proof of a problem, but it's also not encouraging for an old player with chronic back issues.
Puka Nacua (WR2 ADP) is priced right, simply because it's hard to rationalize dropping him. Adams is a slight fade at his WR24 ADP on the assumption his mega-high TD rate will drop. Stafford also is a fade; though he should be as good as his ADP (or even a little better) on a per-game basis when Nacua and Adams are on the field, there's too much risk betting on him for a full season.
WR ADPs for the rest of the wideout corps are all outside the top 100. Konata Mumpfield leads the way at 108. I would bet that if Nacua or Adams misses multiple games, the Rams -- as Super Bowl contenders -- will sign or trade for a short-term replacement rather than put their faith in Mumpfield, Jordan Whittington, Daniels, or Xavier Smith.
The tight end group is as messy as any in fantasy. 2025 second-rounder Terrance Ferguson (TE26 ADP) would have been a big bargain on my board if they hadn't drafted 2026 second-rounder Max Klare (TE39). Pretty bold for a franchise to spend that much draft capital in back-to-back offseasons with Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on the roster. Based on what we saw last year, managers can't assume that someone will rise to the top. Parkinson (TE29) is in the thick of it, while Higbee (TE56) will simply cap others' ceilings. A rough situation.
As for the backfield, will Blake Corum (RB36 ADP) continue closing the gap with Kyren Williams (RB15)? The knock on Corum is that he's been used sparingly in the passing game after being targeted only moderately in college. Williams has a higher floor even if they're playing side-by-side. I don't see how managers can safely draft one without the other.
That said, I don't see how managers can feel confident starting both, because even if Corum takes another two or three touches from Williams, he'll be TD-dependent. So drafting both means hedging that either Williams remains the bell cow, or a Williams injury would leave managers with a top 18-24 RB.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 197: "Matthew Stafford and the Dilemma of Undraftable QBs" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html
As for the backfield, will Blake Corum (RB36 ADP) continue closing the gap with Kyren Williams (RB15)? The knock on Corum is that he's been used sparingly in the passing game after being targeted only moderately in college. Williams has a higher floor even if they're playing side-by-side. I don't see how managers can safely draft one without the other.
That said, I don't see how managers can feel confident starting both, because even if Corum takes another two or three touches from Williams, he'll be TD-dependent. So drafting both means hedging that either Williams remains the bell cow, or a Williams injury would leave managers with a top 18-24 RB.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 197: "Matthew Stafford and the Dilemma of Undraftable QBs" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html