Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Bo Nix a top-12 QB?
2. Will R.J. Harvey play the 1A role over J.K. Dobbins?
3. Can rookie RB Jonah Coleman push for relevance?
4. Is Jaylen Waddle a top-24 WR?
5. Can Courtland Sutton remain at least a weekly streamer?
Had Bo Nix not broken his ankle in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Broncos realistically could have beaten the Patriots in the AFC title game. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham racked up 58 passing yards and a score in the first five minutes. He managed only 75 more passing yards with two turnovers the rest of the game. Denver lost by three points. It was a championship-caliber team that became a "what-if" team after one crucial injury.
Had Nix stayed healthy and helped lead his team to the Super Bowl, I'm convinced his ADP today would not be QB16. As a 2024 rookie, he was the QB8 in points per game. In 2025 he had a QB8 ADP, resulting in QB10 production. He achieved this despite the fact that R.J. Harvey tied for the league's 11th-most drops, while Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram tied for the sixth-most drops.
This offseason, the team added Jaylen Waddle and added another catch-friendly RB in the draft. Nix will be a full go in Week 1. And yet the market believes he'll experience a major regression. . . .
As subscribers already know, Nix is one of my favorite QB bargains for all the reasons highlighted above and more. I've got him 32 spots ahead of his overall-112 ADP. His playmakers are a terrific blend of experienced and ascending talents. If I were more gutsy, Nix would be my QB6. Regardless, he's primed for a campaign that easily beats ridiculously low expectations.
Waddle definitely shakes things up. Without him, Courtland Sutton (turning 31 in October) would have been the #1 WR for maybe one final season. Instead, Sutton's fantasy decline seems assured. He enjoyed the 13th most targets last season. That probably will drop outside the top 28, making his WR36 ADP unrealistic. It doesn't help that Troy Franklin (65-709-6 receiving line last year) should take another step forward -- if not statistically, then at least eating into Sutton's ceiling.
The market sees a clear pecking order: Waddle (WR21 ADP), Sutton (WR36), Franklin (WR76), Pat Bryant (WR86), and Marvin Mims (WR101). While Waddle's value makes sense, I disagree entirely with the Sutton-Franklin disparity. Rather than a 40-spot gap between the two, I've got them only 24 spots apart. Sutton is a trap pick. Franklin is a must-draft in deeper leagues.
The tight end situation is rough, which is great fantasy news for everyone else. Evan Engram (TE37 ADP) will be 32 in Week 1. Nix had only an 86.6 passer rating when looking his way, which is really low for #1 TEs. So the Broncos drafted Justin Joly (TE55) in the fifth round.
Before getting too excited about Joly, consider that aside from George Kittle, the most fantasy-friendly fifth-round TE of the past 30 years was Tyler Conklin. The most fantasy-friendly sixth-rounders were Darren Waller and Charles Clay. Seventh-rounder? Jay Riemersma. So yes, the Niners struck gold once, and the Ravens struck silver before letting Waller walk too soon. Otherwise, this is not where dynasty managers go to build championship rosters. Even if Engram gets hurt, Adam Trautman (unranked) could cut into Joly's dart-throw streamability.
The backfield is a mess, and fortunately the market agrees. That gives us managers an opening to secure value. R.J. Harvey (RB29 ADP), J.K. Dobbins (RB35), and rookie Jonah Coleman (RB49) are an unusually packed trio. Right now I'm fading Dobbins and Coleman while treating Harvey as a bargain. If Coleman crushes it in camp, I'll probably push Coleman ahead of Dobbins, who (aside from 2024) has been used sparingly in the passing game. If he were the bell cow, fine. But in a packed RB corps, he has the lowest ceiling if the more dynamic Coleman looks ready to contribute in Week 1.
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