Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can James Cook dominate again?2. Will D.J. Moore maintain the #1 WR role on his new team?3. Can Khalil Shakir be a streamer?4. Are any other Buffalo WRs draftable?5. Will former first-rounder Dalton Kincaid finally get to the next level?
Josh Allen is doing what's never been done. Aaron Rodgers comes the closest, finishing in the top 2 among fantasy QBs for five straight seasons (2008-2012), and posting #1 overall numbers in two of those years.
Allen has been top 2 in each of the past *six* seasons, finishing #1 four times. He's scored more points -- and is averaging more per game -- than Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. He's #20 all-time in QB scoring despite playing in only 128 contests. The 19 guys ahead of him averaged 240.
Whether or not he'll go down as an all-time great quarterback, there's no doubt he's already an all-time great *fantasy* quarterback. Despite annual warnings that he'll need to scale back his rushing and stop taking punishing hits, he never does. Last year he averaged his most carries per game since 2022 and came within five total yards from netting his highest yards-per-carry since 2022. He dominated despite attempting the fewest passes of his career. He's amassed an insane 41 rushing scores these past three years. He's still breaking tackles at a high clip. And so on.
Entering his age-30 season, he's now someone dynasty managers need to monitor closely. This is around the time when dual-threat QBs regress sharply. But I also don't want to sound an alarm. He's shown no meaningful signs of slowing down. Until that happens, no one else will deserve his QB1 ADP.
James Cook (RB6 ADP) is a different story. Buffalo held his reps somewhat in check in his first three seasons. The floodgates opened last year, resulting in RB6 production. Interestingly, he was the RB8 the year before while averaging only 1.1 fewer points per game. What was the difference last year? Massive volume: 342 regular-season touches (plus another 43 in the playoffs).
There are two warning signs. The first is that his 1.12 fantasy points per touch in 2024 dropped to 0.88 in 2025. For example, in 2024 he had 11 carries for six TDs inside the opposing five-yard line. Last year he needed 16 carries inside the opposing five-yard line to notch six TDs. To exceed or even meet expectations, he'll need the same monster workload or improved efficiency or both. The second warning sign is that he topped out at 140 touches his senior year of college, where he totaled 297 across four years. I would not feel comfortable betting on a running back -- even one as talented as Cook -- after a 385-touch output.
Ray Davis (RB62 ADP) is a must-draft handcuff in nearly all leagues. While Ty Johnson (RB87) looms, Davis looked better in his second NFL season, and he has three years of college workhorse experience. If Cook misses time -- or if the team plays it safer with Cook and elevates his backup to a 1B role -- then Davis easily could crack the top 50. Barring a disastrous camp, he's worth snagging a couple rounds early.
Normally a WR corps might have one fantasy wild card. The Bills have three. D.J. Moore (WR27 ADP) is either on the decline or on the verge of a resurgence. I know, that sounds like a hedge, because it is. I have no idea what to make of him. On the other end of the spectrum is Keon Coleman (WR90), a 2024 early-second-rounder who's been adequate on a team that needs more. Coleman was Michigan State's #1 receiver in 2022 and then Florida State's #1 receiver in 2023. He's used to being "the guy." Buffalo has little room for him to shine, especially after adding two notable wideouts this offseason. We'll see if Coleman can push for a starting job.
The low-ceiling Khalil Shakir (WR53 ADP) is exactly as advertised. He's capable of stepping up as the #1 but has never been a prime candidate to help lead managers to a title. I'd rather draft a rookie like Zachariah Branch 4-5 rounds later than burn a bench spot on Shakir. And if fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell has a strong camp, I might be tempted to push Shakir down another couple rounds. Bell's entering the league at 24 years old with a WR131 ADP. Not promising. But he's very talented. In dynasty rookie drafts, he's the WR17. I think he should be no worse than the WR10, as he could be the #2 WR by next season.
Finally, when will Dalton Kincaid break out? Injuries and Dawson Knox have kept him in check. He was last year's TE14 in points per game while averaging only 4.1 targets. That doesn't seem right for the 2023 first-rounder, who averaged 5.7 and 5.8 targets the previous two seasons. The problem is that this receiving corps seems as crowded as ever. I'm comfortable drafting him around his TE10 ADP, but with the caveat that -- like Shakir (but for different reasons) -- his ceiling seems capped at around TE 7-8.
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* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 196: "De'Von Achane" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html