Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jalen Hurts still a near-elite QB?
2. Can Saquon Barkley bounce back?
3. Will DeVonta Smith take over as the clear alpha?
4. Will rookie WR Makai Lemon be at least a streamer?
5. Is Dallas Goedert a top-12 TE?
Each summer I have at least one "shout from the hilltops" warning. Normally it shows up in posts on this page and in my rankings and -- starting last summer -- on my podcast. Years ago, I'd phrase it as something like, "I'm staking my meaningless fantasy reputation on this . . ." If nearly everything points to a particular range of outcomes, I’ll always name it and stand by it.
On August 8 last year, I wrote about the Eagles, sharing this about Saquon Barkley while comparing him to 2024's Christian McCaffrey: "Barkley brings similar risks after his astonishingly high 482-touch campaign, including the playoffs. Only six running backs in NFL history have had more touches: Eddie George, James Wilder, DeMarco Murray, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Anderson. All six were younger than Barkley."
Then two days later, I did a podcast episode on EA Sports' "Madden Curse," and why nearly every RB on the video game cover has dramatically underperformed that next season . . . and why Barkley was doomed to disappoint in 2025.
To be clear, I didn't think he'd implode. But a 30% statistical regression was realistic based on historical data. He was the preseason RB2. I pushed him down several positional spots and placed Jahmyr Gibbs at #2, because Gibbs had a similar ceiling and a much higher floor. Barkley's production ended up dropping 34.7%. He was the RB15 in points per game. If you drafted him at his ADP, it hurt.
Funny enough, experts offered a lot of reasons for his decline, including defensive adjustments and a weakened offensive line. But there's more to it. Massive RB workloads consistently result in massive regressions the following year. Older running backs face higher risks. Barkley 2024 workload contributed to his 2025 letdown. Full stop. It's quantifiable and predictable, and that should give us enough confidence to keep bucking the market when the market doesn't understand what's coming.
The market is more cautious about Barkley this summer, giving him an RB10 ADP. I actually think he'll bounce back, and the Eagles need him to bounce back. He's still "only" 29 years old.
That said, there's room for more than one bargain in this backfield. Tank Bigsby excelled in his first season in Philly (despite running behind a supposedly weak offensive line). He'd dropped a couple spots this past week and is now sitting at RB54. He has virtually no competition for the #2 job. Eagles RBs handled 416 touches last season. Bigsby had 61. Will Shipley and A.J. Dillon combined for 38, most of which I think will now go to Bigsby. Last year's RB53 (Bhayshul Tuten) had 93 touches. The RB52 (Sean Tucker) had 94. I think a healthy Bigsby is a near lock for top-50 production, and his high handcuff ceiling makes him a big bargain.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts has had a QB6 ADP or better each of the past five preseasons. But he's only three overall spots ahead of QB7 Caleb Williams. Will the market keep him in near-elite territory? Even if he gets pushed down one or two spots, I'm still not trusting him. It's not just the loss of A.J. Brown and the advancing age / durability concerns of red-zone favorite Dallas Goedert. Hurts is highly dependent on his legs. Even if he becomes more of a passer, it would be a net negative on a ceiling driven largely by rushing yards and rushing scores.
He was the overall QB8 last year on 6.6 carries per game. The previous three years he averaged 10.0, 9.2, and 11.0. He had single-digit rushing scores for the first time since his partial 2020 campaign. His early-career rushing efficiency has turned into mediocrity the past three seasons, culminating in 4.0 YPC last year and a career-low 0.7 yards after first contact. I can't justify his current ADP.
Through the air, DeVonta Smith (WR13 ADP) will start the season as the unquestioned #1 wideout, and he'll remain there unless high-priced rookie Makai Lemon (WR39) acclimates quickly. On the assumption Hurts passes more and runs less, I view both Smith and Lemon as slight bargains, with Lemon offering the most intriguing upside.
The rest is a crapshoot, since we shouldn't expect a #3 Eagles WR to be fantasy relevant when Smith and Lemon are active. Newcomers Dontayvion Wicks (WR85) and Hollywood Brown (WR122) will compete for the #3 job. Sentimental Best Ball managers might take a flyer on Brown. I wouldn't. Wicks is the more important player to follow in camp. I'm prepared to move him up several spots if he enters the season ahead of Brown, with the understanding that it still wouldn't make him draftable.
And as subscribers know, Goedert was my biggest bargain among all draftable tight ends last summer. His ADP was TE16 / overall-140. He was the TE13 / overall-117 on my draft board. In my 14-team league, I happened to pick at #116. My next pick was all the way at 136. 11 tight ends were off the board. So I followed by rankings and took Goedert in the belief he wouldn't be around at 136.
It worked out, but not for the reasons I thought. After never exceeding five TDs in a season, he had 11, accounting for 36% of his fantasy output. Entering last season, TDs accounted for only 16.0% of his fantasy points. This significant uptick isn't easily replicable. For a while this summer, the market understood this, giving him a TE15 ADP. Now it's TE13, possibly because of negative camp buzz for second-round rookie Eli Stowers (TE32). But I think that buzz right now is just noise. Stowers has all season to encroach on Goedert's usage, making the latter a fade.
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