Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Lamar Jackson return to greatness?
2. Can Derrick Henry crack the top 10?
3. Is Zay Flowers a top-16 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Mark Andrews draftable?
On Halloween last year, I released a podcast episode called "Lamar Jackson Making History." It began with, "Since Christmas Day, 2023, Lamar Jackson has thrown 55 TD passes and only five interceptions." I then walked through the greatest passing numbers I could find for any QB during any sustained period. Patrick Mahomes had 61 TD passes and 11 interceptions near the start of his career. Tom Brady had a 54/8 stretch nearly 20 years earlier. And that was the best I could find.
So through the air, Jackson was doing what (quite possibly) no other quarterback had done over a 24-game stretch. Except his dominance wasn't only through the air. He's also one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks of all time, and during those 24 games, he racked up 1,175 rushing yards and five rushing scores.
So the point of my episode was to take a step back and marvel at something that had never happened before. After sitting for roughly a month with a hamstring injury, Jackson returned on October 30th and threw four TD passes, putting him on a season-long pace of 39 TD passes and only three interceptions. He was unstoppable, and I was pumped that I drafted him in the late second round.
Then it all fell apart. Whether because of lingering hamstring issues or vulnerable pass protection (he had a career-high sack rate) or something else, Jackson overnight went from historically elite to an historical collapse. He had six TDs and six picks in those final seven games. He rushed 41 times for only 169 yards and one score -- about two full yards per carry less than his career clip entering the season.
Last summer I did another episode on Jackson, along with Josh Allen. It dealt with research I'd done on the rapid decline of dual-threat QBs, often due to injuries. Cam Newton's final great campaign was his age-29 season. Steve McNair: age 30. Michael Vick: age 31. Russell Wilson: age 32. In the episode, I discussed the likelihood that Jackson and Allen had maybe only two great seasons left. The wear and tear of running that much would eventually render them little more than pocket passers, eliminating much of their fantasy advantage.
Or at least, that's the theory based on trends from an admittedly small sample size. But what happens with Jackson, Allen, and other run-heavy QBs of this mini-generation will help answer the question: "Are dual-threat quarterbacks high-risk investments once they turn 30?"
On paper, Jackson should be great this year. He still leads a plus offense, and presumably he'll start the year healthy and run-friendly. His QB2 ADP hasn't budged all summer. The fantasy market is looking past last season's hiccup. And because of how elite he can be, I'm *mostly* looking past it too. But his overall ADP is considerably worse than last year, and that suggests managers want to wait until the fourth or fifth round before snagging him. One thing is certain: if he struggles at all on the ground, or if he runs less than usual, he'll have a tough time posting elite numbers.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is deceptively risky at his RB12 ADP. He'll turn 33 in January and is coming off another 300+ carry season where he netted the worst broken-tackle rate of his career. His targets per game have dropped each year since 2021. We cannot reasonably expect him to play better this season -- not at his age. The odds of him declining noticeably are far greater than the odds of his declining only slightly. For now, he's a fade, and as the summer progresses, I might make him a bigger fade.
That makes the perennially patient Justice Hill an intriguing bargain at his RB68 ADP. Although fifth-round rookie Adam Randall (RB79) and Rasheen Ali (RB83) should be monitored, the handcuff role is Hill's to lose, and that puts him in a nice draftable spot. Also, a note on Randall: the converted wide receiver had only 172 college carries. If you're in dynasty, he's not worth the stash.
Is Zay Flowers an automatic weekly fantasy starter? His WR14 ADP suggests he is. I don't think it's that clear. Thru November last year, he averaged only 11.9 points per game. That jumped to 20.1 in his final five contests. How did his teammates do during those five games? Mark Andrews averaged 4.1 points. Rashod Bateman missed two of those games and averaged 2.0 points in the other three. DeAndre Hopkins netted 2.5. In fact, across the full season, Flowers was the only Raven to finish among the top 100 WR scorers.
Offenses rarely are that lopsided. Baltimore missed the playoffs. Yes, they need Flowers. But they also need more, and I believe this will be at least a marginally more balanced passing attack in 2026. Flowers is going at least a round too early, and either fourth-round rookie Elijah Sarratt (WR91 ADP) or Rashod Bateman (WR92) is going at least a couple rounds too late. If Sarratt flops in camp, or if Bateman gets hurt (always a possibility with Bateman), then Devontez Walker (WR103) would have a shot at deep-league relevance.
Finally, Mark Andrews (TE15 ADP) is a far cry from his glory days, and he'll turn 31 in September. That's the bad news. The good news is that he was doing fine until the wheels came off of Jackson's season. Andrews averaged 10.0 points thru Week 11. Isaiah Likely has been replaced with fourth-round rookie Matthew Hibner. I view Andrews like a view Houston's Dalton Schultz: an aging former weekly fantasy starter with a TD-dependent ceiling and occasional pop. He's better than his naysayers, and he also is priced outside the top 10 for good reasons.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 194: "Alvin Kamara and Travis Etienne" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html