Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Jordan Love a must-draft QB?
2. Could MarShawn Lloyd make noise behind Josh Jacobs?
3. Is Christian Watson a locked-in weekly fantasy starter?
4. Will Matthew Golden outperform Jayden Reed?
5. Can a healthy Tucker Kraft post near-elite numbers?
Last year, Christian Watson reminded us why "undraftable," injured players in packed receiving corps can still break through. His ADP entering Week 1 was WR106 / overall-335. Despite flashing during his first three seasons, the former second-round pick couldn't stay healthy. The fantasy market had had enough and looked elsewhere for bargains, including Watson's teammates Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, first-round rookie Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft. All five of these guys had better ADPs. Backup TE Luke Musgrave (overall-336) was only one spot behind Watson.
As we now know, Watson led all Packer wideouts with 13.2 points per game, making him the WR19 -- better than Jameson Williams, D.K. Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and almost every other higher-priced preseason pass-catcher. With Doubs and Wicks gone, the receiving corps is a little more streamlined. 2025 third-round Savion Williams (WR124 ADP) is a bit of a wild card. But let's assume Watson (WR27), Reed (WR43), and Golden (WR50) earn most of the wideout targets. Can we trust Watson to replicate last year's success? Or will his early-career durability issues persist?
I have Watson as a slight fade, Reed as a slight bargain, and Golden as a bigger bargain. In other words, I disagree with the market's thinking that Watson is the clear-cut #1. If there were a "1A" receiver, Watson would start the season in that role, with Reed and Golden serving as co-1B's. But a thinned WR group benefits Golden the most. In the four games immediately before Watson made his 2025 debut in Week 8, Golden collected 16 catches for 233 yards. Then his fantasy output suffered: no touchdowns and struggling for attention in a mostly crowded offense. That should change in 2026.
Meanwhile, a torn ACL knocked Tucker Kraft out midseason. The fantasy market is sold regardless, handing him a TE5 ADP. I'm not as bullish. Six of his eight games were when Watson was sidelined. He might not be truly "100%" until later this season. Kraft is a solid weekly fantasy starter being treated as near-elite.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love quietly posted the best passer rating of his career last season despite absorbing a career-high 3.1 sacks per game. If Watson and Kraft stay healthy (along with the other key pass catchers), Love probably will exceed his QB19 ADP expectations. But that's also the risk managers take: investing in a relatively low-ceiling quarterback who relies on recently injured (Kraft) and/or injury-prone (Watson) starters. If he fell to QB21, I'd be moderately satisfied snagging him in Supeflex.
The backfield is more up-in-the-air than the receiving corps. Police reportedly are still investigating Josh Jacobs. If no charges are filed, and if the NFL doesn't find cause to suspend him, then his value would trend upward from his current RB18 ADP. Of course, we have no idea what will happen, which is why MarShawn Lloyd (RB53) is a nothing-to-lose add-on near the end of drafts.
A 2024 third-round pick, Lloyd has been hurt throughout his NFL career, leading to only seven career touches. In fact, since he entered college in 2021, he has only 332 touches. He lacks the body of work that most running backs have when they enter the league -- and which nearly every Day 2 pick in recent NFL history has had by this stage of their career.
Assuming he locks up the #2 job ahead of former UDFA Chris Brooks, Lloyd would be a huge unknown with a similarly huge boom. It's a strange fantasy combination.
---
* Sign up for FF4W Top 350 Preseason Fantasy Rankings (donate what you want):
(1) Venmo -- venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- paypal.me/bjrudell
* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 193: "Quinshon Judkins" -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-for-winners/id1800490745
* Download FF4W research: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/research_1.html